A comparison of palliative care and rapid emergency screening (P-CaRES) tool, broad and narrow criteria, and surprise questions to predict survival of older emergency department patients

BACKGROUND: Palliative care is a form of medical care designed to enhance the quality of life of patients with life-threatening conditions. This study was conducted to compare the accuracy of predicted survival the 1 and 3-month survival rate of Broad and narrow criteria, Surprise questions (SQ), and Palliative Care and Rapid Emergency Screening (P-CaRES) after admission to the emergency department (ED). METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted at an urban teaching hospital in Thailand. Patients aged ≥ 65 years admitted to the ED were classified according to their emergency severity index (ESI) (Level: 1–3). We collected data on SQ, P-CaRES, and broad and narrow criteria. A survival data of participants were collected at 1 and 3 months after admission to the ED. The survival rate was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier and log-rank tests. RESULTS: A total of 269 patients completed the study. P-CaRES positive and P-CaRES negative patients had 1-month survival rates of 81% and 94.8%, respectively (P = 0.37), and at 3-month survival rates of 70.7% and 90.1%, respectively (P < 0.001). SQ (not surprised) had a 1-month survival rate of 79.3%, while SQ (surprised) had a 97% survival rate (P = 0.01), and SQ (not surprised) had a 75.4% survival rate at 3-months, while SQ (surprised) had a 96.3% survival rate (P = 0.01). Broad and narrow criteria that were positive and negative had 1-month survival rates of 88.1% and 92.5%, respectively (P = 0.71), while those that were positive and negative had 3-month survival rates of 78.6% and 87.2%, respectively (P = 0.19). The hazard ratio (HR) of SQ (not surprised) at 1 month was 3.22( 95%CI:1.16–8.89). The HR at 3 months of P-CaRES (positive) was 3.31 with a 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.74 − 6.27, while the HR for SQ (not surprise) was 7.33, 95% CI: 3.03–19.79; however, broad and narrow criteria had an HR of 1.78, 95% CI:0.84–3.77. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults who visited the ED, the SQ were good prognosis tools for predicting 1 and 3-month survival, and P-CaRES were good prognostic tools for predicting 3-month survival.