Nomogram to Predict the Long-Term Overall Survival of Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Radiofrequency Ablation

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Radiofrequency ablation is a curative treatment for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but many factors influence the survival of these patients and should be taken into consideration during treatment planning. Our retrospective study reports the outcome of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) as primary treatment and analyzes seven factors related to a poorer prognosis: Age greater than 65 years, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grades 2 and 3, AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) greater than 1, tumor size larger than 3 cm, diabetes mellitus, end-stage renal disease, and tumor number greater than 1. By incorporating these variables, we developed a simplified nomogram that enables personalized predictions of overall survival following RFA for HCC. This tool can support physicians in clinical decision-making by providing individualized prognostic information. ABSTRACT: Our objective was to develop a predictive nomogram that could estimate the long-term survival of patients with very early/early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA). For this retrospective study, we enrolled 950 patients who initially received curative RFA for HCC at Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages 0 and A between 2002 and 2016. Factors predicting poor survival after RFA were investigated through a Cox proportional hazard model. The nomogram was constructed using the investigated variables influencing overall survival (OS). After a median follow-up time of 6.25 years, 400 patients had died, and 17 patients had received liver transplantation. The 1-,3-,5-,7-, and 10-year OS rates were 94.5%, 73.5%, 57.9%, 45.7%, and 35.8%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age greater than 65 years, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grades 2 and 3, AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) greater than 1, tumor size larger than 3 cm, diabetes mellitus, end-stage renal disease, and tumor number greater than 1 were significantly associated with poor OS. The nomogram was constructed using these seven variables. The validation results showed a good concordance index of 0.683. When comparing discriminative ability to tumor, node, and metastasis (TNM), BCLC, and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) staging systems, our nomogram had the highest C-index for predicting mortality. This nomogram provides useful information on prognosis post-RFA as a primary treatment and aids physicians in decision-making.