A secure future? Human urban and agricultural land use benefits a flightless island-endemic rail despite climate change

Identifying environmental characteristics that limit species' distributions is important for contemporary conservation and inferring responses to future environmental change. The Tasmanian native hen is an island endemic flightless rail and a survivor of a prehistoric extirpation event. Little is known about the regional-scale environmental characteristics influencing the distribution of native hens, or how their future distribution might be impacted by environmental shifts (e.g. climate change). Using a combination of local fieldwork and species distribution modelling, we assess environmental factors shaping the contemporary distribution of the native hen, and project future distribution changes under predicted climate change. We find 37% of Tasmania is currently suitable for the native hens, owing to low summer precipitation, low elevation, human-modified vegetation and urban areas. Moreover, in unsuitable regions, urban areas can create ‘oases’ of habitat, able to support populations with high breeding activity by providing resources and buffering against environmental constraints. Under climate change predictions, native hens were predicted to lose only 5% of their occupied range by 2055. We conclude that the species is resilient to climate change and benefits overall from anthropogenic landscape modifications. As such, this constitutes a rare example of a flightless rail to have adapted to human activity.