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Building epidemic models for living populations and computer networks
Accurate modeling of viral outbreaks in living populations and computer networks is a prominent research field. Many researchers are in search for simple and realistic models to manage preventive resources and implement effective measures against hazardous circumstances. The ongoing Covid-19 pandemi...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
SAGE Publications
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10305813/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34080487 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/00368504211017800 |
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author | Kondakci, Suleyman Kondakci, Dilek Doruk |
author_facet | Kondakci, Suleyman Kondakci, Dilek Doruk |
author_sort | Kondakci, Suleyman |
collection | PubMed |
description | Accurate modeling of viral outbreaks in living populations and computer networks is a prominent research field. Many researchers are in search for simple and realistic models to manage preventive resources and implement effective measures against hazardous circumstances. The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has revealed the fact about deficiencies in health resource planning of some countries having relatively high case count and death toll. A unique epidemic model incorporating stochastic processes and queuing theory is presented, which was evaluated by computer simulation using pre-processed data obtained from an urban clinic providing family health services. Covid-19 data from a local corona-center was used as the initial model parameters (e.g. [Formula: see text] , infection rate, local population size, number of contacts with infected individuals, and recovery rate). A long–run trend analysis for 1 year was simulated. The results fit well to the current case data of the sample corona center. Effective preventive and reactive resource planning basically depends on accurately designed models, tools, and techniques needed for the prediction of feature threats, risks, and mitigation costs. In order to sufficiently analyze the transmission and recovery dynamics of epidemics it is important to choose concise mathematical models. Hence, a unique stochastic modeling approach tied to queueing theory and computer simulation has been chosen. The methods used here can also serve as a guidance for accurate modeling and classification of stages (or compartments) of epidemics in general. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10305813 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | SAGE Publications |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-103058132023-08-09 Building epidemic models for living populations and computer networks Kondakci, Suleyman Kondakci, Dilek Doruk Sci Prog Article Accurate modeling of viral outbreaks in living populations and computer networks is a prominent research field. Many researchers are in search for simple and realistic models to manage preventive resources and implement effective measures against hazardous circumstances. The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has revealed the fact about deficiencies in health resource planning of some countries having relatively high case count and death toll. A unique epidemic model incorporating stochastic processes and queuing theory is presented, which was evaluated by computer simulation using pre-processed data obtained from an urban clinic providing family health services. Covid-19 data from a local corona-center was used as the initial model parameters (e.g. [Formula: see text] , infection rate, local population size, number of contacts with infected individuals, and recovery rate). A long–run trend analysis for 1 year was simulated. The results fit well to the current case data of the sample corona center. Effective preventive and reactive resource planning basically depends on accurately designed models, tools, and techniques needed for the prediction of feature threats, risks, and mitigation costs. In order to sufficiently analyze the transmission and recovery dynamics of epidemics it is important to choose concise mathematical models. Hence, a unique stochastic modeling approach tied to queueing theory and computer simulation has been chosen. The methods used here can also serve as a guidance for accurate modeling and classification of stages (or compartments) of epidemics in general. SAGE Publications 2021-06-03 /pmc/articles/PMC10305813/ /pubmed/34080487 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/00368504211017800 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). |
spellingShingle | Article Kondakci, Suleyman Kondakci, Dilek Doruk Building epidemic models for living populations and computer networks |
title | Building epidemic models for living populations and computer
networks |
title_full | Building epidemic models for living populations and computer
networks |
title_fullStr | Building epidemic models for living populations and computer
networks |
title_full_unstemmed | Building epidemic models for living populations and computer
networks |
title_short | Building epidemic models for living populations and computer
networks |
title_sort | building epidemic models for living populations and computer
networks |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10305813/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34080487 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/00368504211017800 |
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