Predictors of Recovery Following Lumbar Microdiscectomy for Sciatica: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Chronic post-surgical pain is reported by up to 40% of patients after lumbar microdiscectomy for sciatica, a complaint associated with disability and loss of productivity. We conducted a systematic review of observational studies to explore factors associated with persistent leg pain and impairments after microdiscectomy for sciatica. We searched eligible studies in MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL that explored, in an adjusted model, predictors of persistent leg pain, physical impairment, or failure to return to work after microdiscectomy for sciatica. When possible, we pooled estimates of association using random-effects models using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. Moderate-certainty evidence showed that the female sex probably has a small association with persistent post-surgical leg pain (odds ratio (OR) = 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.63 to 2.08; absolute risk increase (ARI) = 1.8%, 95% CI = -4.7% to 11.3%), large association with failure to return to work (OR = 2.79, 95% CI = 1.27 to 6.17; ARI = 10.6%, 95% CI = 1.8% to 25.2%), and older age is probably associated with greater postoperative disability (β = 1.47 points on the 100-point Oswestry Disability Index for every 10-year increase from age (>/=18 years), 95% CI = -4.14 to 7.28). Among factors that were not possible to pool, two factors showed promise for future study, namely, legal representation and preoperative opioid use, which showed large associations with worse outcomes after surgery. The moderate-certainty evidence showed female sex is probably associated with persistent leg pain and failure to return to work and that older age is probably associated with greater post-surgical impairment after a microdiscectomy. Future research should explore the association between legal representation and preoperative opioid use with persistent pain and impairment after microdiscectomy for sciatica.