Cause-specific mortality among patients with cirrhosis in a population-based cohort study in Ontario (2000–2017)

Although patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of death, the exact causes of death have not been reported in the contemporary era. This study aimed to describe cause-specific mortality in patients with cirrhosis in the general population. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using administrative health care data from Ontario, Canada. Adult patients with cirrhosis from 2000–2017 were identified. Cirrhosis etiologies were defined as HCV, HBV, alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), NAFLD, or autoimmune liver disease/other with validated algorithms. Patients were followed until death, liver transplant, or end of study. Primary outcome was the cause of death as liver-related, cardiovascular disease, non-hepatic malignancy, and external causes (accident/self-harm/suicide/homicide). Nonparametric analyses were used to describe the cumulative incidence of cause-specific death by cirrhosis etiology, sex, and compensation status. RESULTS: Overall, 202,022 patients with cirrhosis were identified (60% male, median age 56 y (IQR 46–67), 52% NAFLD, 26% alcohol-associated liver disease, 11% HCV). After a median follow-up of 5 years (IQR 2–12), 81,428 patients died, and 3024 (2%) received liver transplant . Patients with compensated cirrhosis mostly died from non-hepatic malignancies and cardiovascular disease (30% and 27%, respectively, in NAFLD). The 10-year cumulative incidence of liver-related deaths was the highest among those with viral hepatitis (11%–18%) and alcohol-associated liver disease (25%), those with decompensation (37%) and/or HCC (50%–53%). Liver transplant occurred at low rates (< 5%), and in men more than women. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular disease and cancer-related mortality exceed liver-related mortality in patients with compensated cirrhosis.