Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on sales of sexual and reproductive health products: an ecological study of pharmacies in Kenya

OBJECTIVES: To examine how sales of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) products varied among pharmacies in Kenya using administrative data, leveraging natural variation in the COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying policy restrictions between 2019 and 2021. DESIGN AND SETTING: Ecological study of pharmacies in Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: 761 pharmacies using the Maisha Meds product inventory management system (capturing 572 916 products sold). OUTCOMES: Sales quantity, price and revenue of SRH products sold per pharmacy per week. RESULTS: COVID-19 deaths were associated with a −2.97% (95% CI −3.82%, −2.11%) decrease in sales quantity, a 1.09% (95% CI 0.44%, 1.72%) increase in sales price and a −1.89% (−1.00%, −2.79%) decrease in revenues per pharmacy per week. Results were similar when considering new COVID-19 cases (per 1000) and the Average Policy Stringency Index. Results differed substantially between individual SRH products—a large decrease in sales quantity in pregnancy tests, injectables and emergency contraception, a modest decrease in condoms and no change in oral contraception. Sales price increases were similarly varied; four of the five most sold products were revenue neutral. CONCLUSIONS: We found a robust negative association between SRH sales at pharmacies in Kenya and COVID-19 reported cases, deaths and policy restriction. Although our data cannot definitively point to reduced access, existing evidence from Kenya regarding unchanged fertility intentions, increases in unintended pregnancies and reported reasons for non-use of contraceptives during COVID-19 suggests a prominent role of reduced access. While policymakers may have a role in sustaining access, their role may be limited by broader macroeconomic problems, such as global supply chain disruptions and inflation, during supply shocks.