An extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19 for sixteen countries in west Africa

We provide an extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19. We use data from Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo, covering a period of 37 months. Extreme values were d...

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Autores principales: Nadarajah, Saralees, Ojo, Oluwadare O.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10319888/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37402872
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37722-9
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author Nadarajah, Saralees
Ojo, Oluwadare O.
author_facet Nadarajah, Saralees
Ojo, Oluwadare O.
author_sort Nadarajah, Saralees
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description We provide an extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19. We use data from Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo, covering a period of 37 months. Extreme values were defined as monthly maximums of daily new cases. The generalized extreme value distribution was fitted to them with two of its three parameters allowed to vary linearly or quadratically with respect to month number. Ten of the sixteen countries were found to exhibit significant downward trends in monthly maximums. The adequacy of fits was assessed by probability plots and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The fitted models were used to derive quantiles of the monthly maximum of new cases as well as their limits when the month number is taken to infinity.
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spelling pubmed-103198882023-07-06 An extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19 for sixteen countries in west Africa Nadarajah, Saralees Ojo, Oluwadare O. Sci Rep Article We provide an extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19. We use data from Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo, covering a period of 37 months. Extreme values were defined as monthly maximums of daily new cases. The generalized extreme value distribution was fitted to them with two of its three parameters allowed to vary linearly or quadratically with respect to month number. Ten of the sixteen countries were found to exhibit significant downward trends in monthly maximums. The adequacy of fits was assessed by probability plots and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The fitted models were used to derive quantiles of the monthly maximum of new cases as well as their limits when the month number is taken to infinity. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-07-04 /pmc/articles/PMC10319888/ /pubmed/37402872 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37722-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Nadarajah, Saralees
Ojo, Oluwadare O.
An extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19 for sixteen countries in west Africa
title An extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19 for sixteen countries in west Africa
title_full An extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19 for sixteen countries in west Africa
title_fullStr An extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19 for sixteen countries in west Africa
title_full_unstemmed An extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19 for sixteen countries in west Africa
title_short An extreme value analysis of daily new cases of COVID-19 for sixteen countries in west Africa
title_sort extreme value analysis of daily new cases of covid-19 for sixteen countries in west africa
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10319888/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37402872
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37722-9
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