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Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach

Vaccination is considered as the main tool for the Global Control and Eradication Strategy for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), and the efficacity of the PPR-vaccine in conferring long-life immunity has been established. Despite this, previous studies asserted that vaccination can be expensive and...

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Autores principales: Aboah, Joshua, Apolloni, Andrea, Duboz, Raphaël, Wieland, Barbara, Kotchofa, Pacem, Okoth, Edward, Dione, Michel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10321633/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37405996
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287386
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author Aboah, Joshua
Apolloni, Andrea
Duboz, Raphaël
Wieland, Barbara
Kotchofa, Pacem
Okoth, Edward
Dione, Michel
author_facet Aboah, Joshua
Apolloni, Andrea
Duboz, Raphaël
Wieland, Barbara
Kotchofa, Pacem
Okoth, Edward
Dione, Michel
author_sort Aboah, Joshua
collection PubMed
description Vaccination is considered as the main tool for the Global Control and Eradication Strategy for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), and the efficacity of the PPR-vaccine in conferring long-life immunity has been established. Despite this, previous studies asserted that vaccination can be expensive and consequently, the effectiveness of disease control may not necessarily translate to overall profit for farmers. Also, the consequences of PPR control on socioeconomic indicators like food and nutrition security at a macro-national level have not been explored thoroughly. Therefore, this study seeks to assess ex-ante the impact of PPR control strategies on farm-level profitability and the socioeconomic consequences concerning food and nutrition security at a national level in Senegal. A bi-level system dynamics model, compartmentalised into five modules consisting of integrated production-epidemiological, economics, disease control, marketing, and policy modules, was developed with the STELLA Architect software, validated, and simulated for 30 years at a weekly timestep. The model was parameterised with data from household surveys from pastoral areas in Northern Senegal and relevant existing data. Nine vaccination scenarios were examined considering different vaccination parameters (vaccination coverage, vaccine wastage, and the provision of government subsidies). The findings indicate that compared to a no-vaccination scenario, all the vaccination scenarios for both 26.5% (actual vaccination coverage) and 70% (expected vaccination coverage) resulted in statistically significant differences in the gross margin earnings and the potential per capita consumption for the supply of mutton and goat meat. At the prevailing vaccination coverage (with or without the provision of government subsidies), farm households will earn an average gross margin of $69.43 (annually) more than without vaccination, and the average per capita consumption for mutton and goat meat will increase by 1.13kg/person/year. When the vaccination coverage is increased to the prescribed threshold for PPR eradication (i.e., 70%), with or without the provision of government subsidies, the average gross margin earnings would be $72.23 annually and the per capita consumption will increase by 1.23kg/person/year compared to the baseline (without vaccination). This study’s findings offer an empirical justification for a sustainable approach to PPR eradication. The information on the socioeconomic benefits of vaccination can be promoted via sensitization campaigns to stimulate farmers’ uptake of the practice. This study can inform investment in PPR control.
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spelling pubmed-103216332023-07-06 Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach Aboah, Joshua Apolloni, Andrea Duboz, Raphaël Wieland, Barbara Kotchofa, Pacem Okoth, Edward Dione, Michel PLoS One Research Article Vaccination is considered as the main tool for the Global Control and Eradication Strategy for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), and the efficacity of the PPR-vaccine in conferring long-life immunity has been established. Despite this, previous studies asserted that vaccination can be expensive and consequently, the effectiveness of disease control may not necessarily translate to overall profit for farmers. Also, the consequences of PPR control on socioeconomic indicators like food and nutrition security at a macro-national level have not been explored thoroughly. Therefore, this study seeks to assess ex-ante the impact of PPR control strategies on farm-level profitability and the socioeconomic consequences concerning food and nutrition security at a national level in Senegal. A bi-level system dynamics model, compartmentalised into five modules consisting of integrated production-epidemiological, economics, disease control, marketing, and policy modules, was developed with the STELLA Architect software, validated, and simulated for 30 years at a weekly timestep. The model was parameterised with data from household surveys from pastoral areas in Northern Senegal and relevant existing data. Nine vaccination scenarios were examined considering different vaccination parameters (vaccination coverage, vaccine wastage, and the provision of government subsidies). The findings indicate that compared to a no-vaccination scenario, all the vaccination scenarios for both 26.5% (actual vaccination coverage) and 70% (expected vaccination coverage) resulted in statistically significant differences in the gross margin earnings and the potential per capita consumption for the supply of mutton and goat meat. At the prevailing vaccination coverage (with or without the provision of government subsidies), farm households will earn an average gross margin of $69.43 (annually) more than without vaccination, and the average per capita consumption for mutton and goat meat will increase by 1.13kg/person/year. When the vaccination coverage is increased to the prescribed threshold for PPR eradication (i.e., 70%), with or without the provision of government subsidies, the average gross margin earnings would be $72.23 annually and the per capita consumption will increase by 1.23kg/person/year compared to the baseline (without vaccination). This study’s findings offer an empirical justification for a sustainable approach to PPR eradication. The information on the socioeconomic benefits of vaccination can be promoted via sensitization campaigns to stimulate farmers’ uptake of the practice. This study can inform investment in PPR control. Public Library of Science 2023-07-05 /pmc/articles/PMC10321633/ /pubmed/37405996 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287386 Text en © 2023 Aboah et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Aboah, Joshua
Apolloni, Andrea
Duboz, Raphaël
Wieland, Barbara
Kotchofa, Pacem
Okoth, Edward
Dione, Michel
Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach
title Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach
title_full Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach
title_fullStr Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach
title_full_unstemmed Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach
title_short Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach
title_sort ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in senegal: a system dynamics modelling approach
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10321633/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37405996
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287386
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