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Projected burden of stroke in China through 2050

BACKGROUND: Stroke is the leading cause of death in China, and predicting the stroke burden could provide essential information guiding the setting of medium- and long-term health policies and priorities. The study aimed to project trends associated with stroke burden in China through 2050, not only...

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Autores principales: Yao, Minghong, Ren, Yan, Jia, Yulong, Xu, Jiayue, Wang, Yuning, Zou, Kang, Sun, Xin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10325738/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36580638
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CM9.0000000000002060
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author Yao, Minghong
Ren, Yan
Jia, Yulong
Xu, Jiayue
Wang, Yuning
Zou, Kang
Sun, Xin
author_facet Yao, Minghong
Ren, Yan
Jia, Yulong
Xu, Jiayue
Wang, Yuning
Zou, Kang
Sun, Xin
author_sort Yao, Minghong
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Stroke is the leading cause of death in China, and predicting the stroke burden could provide essential information guiding the setting of medium- and long-term health policies and priorities. The study aimed to project trends associated with stroke burden in China through 2050, not only in terms of incidence and mortality but also for prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). METHODS: Data on stroke rates in incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from a recent Global Burden of Disease study. Demographic-specific trends in rates over time were estimated using three models: the loglinear model, the Lee-Carter model, and a functional time series model. The mean absolute percentage error and the root mean squared error were used for model selection. Projections up to 2050 were estimated using the best fitting model. United Nations population data were used to project the absolute numbers through 2050. RESULTS: From 2019 to 2050, the crude rates for all measures of the stroke burden are projected to increase continuously among both men and women. We project that compared with those in 2019, the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs because of stroke in China in 2050 will increase by 55.58%, 119.16%, 72.15%, and 20.04%, respectively; the corresponding increases in number were 2.19, 34.27, 1.58, and 9.21 million. The age-standardized rate is projected to substantially decline for incidence (8.94%), death (40.37%), and DALYs (43.47%), but the age-standardized prevalence rate is predicted to increase by 10.82%. By 2050, the burden of stroke among the population aged ≥65 years will increase significantly: by 104.70% for incidence, by 218.48% for prevalence, by 100.00% for death, and by 58.93% for DALYs. CONCLUSIONS: With the aging population in China increasing over the next three decades, the burden of stroke will be markedly increased. Continuous efforts are needed to improve stroke health care and secondary prevention, especially for older adults.
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spelling pubmed-103257382023-07-07 Projected burden of stroke in China through 2050 Yao, Minghong Ren, Yan Jia, Yulong Xu, Jiayue Wang, Yuning Zou, Kang Sun, Xin Chin Med J (Engl) Original Articles BACKGROUND: Stroke is the leading cause of death in China, and predicting the stroke burden could provide essential information guiding the setting of medium- and long-term health policies and priorities. The study aimed to project trends associated with stroke burden in China through 2050, not only in terms of incidence and mortality but also for prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). METHODS: Data on stroke rates in incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from a recent Global Burden of Disease study. Demographic-specific trends in rates over time were estimated using three models: the loglinear model, the Lee-Carter model, and a functional time series model. The mean absolute percentage error and the root mean squared error were used for model selection. Projections up to 2050 were estimated using the best fitting model. United Nations population data were used to project the absolute numbers through 2050. RESULTS: From 2019 to 2050, the crude rates for all measures of the stroke burden are projected to increase continuously among both men and women. We project that compared with those in 2019, the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs because of stroke in China in 2050 will increase by 55.58%, 119.16%, 72.15%, and 20.04%, respectively; the corresponding increases in number were 2.19, 34.27, 1.58, and 9.21 million. The age-standardized rate is projected to substantially decline for incidence (8.94%), death (40.37%), and DALYs (43.47%), but the age-standardized prevalence rate is predicted to increase by 10.82%. By 2050, the burden of stroke among the population aged ≥65 years will increase significantly: by 104.70% for incidence, by 218.48% for prevalence, by 100.00% for death, and by 58.93% for DALYs. CONCLUSIONS: With the aging population in China increasing over the next three decades, the burden of stroke will be markedly increased. Continuous efforts are needed to improve stroke health care and secondary prevention, especially for older adults. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2023-07-05 2022-12-29 /pmc/articles/PMC10325738/ /pubmed/36580638 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CM9.0000000000002060 Text en Copyright © 2022 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
spellingShingle Original Articles
Yao, Minghong
Ren, Yan
Jia, Yulong
Xu, Jiayue
Wang, Yuning
Zou, Kang
Sun, Xin
Projected burden of stroke in China through 2050
title Projected burden of stroke in China through 2050
title_full Projected burden of stroke in China through 2050
title_fullStr Projected burden of stroke in China through 2050
title_full_unstemmed Projected burden of stroke in China through 2050
title_short Projected burden of stroke in China through 2050
title_sort projected burden of stroke in china through 2050
topic Original Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10325738/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36580638
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CM9.0000000000002060
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