Low cancer yield in PI-RADS 3 upgraded to 4 by dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI: is it time to reconsider scoring categorization?

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate MRI diagnostic performance in detecting clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) in peripheral-zone PI-RADS 4 lesions, comparing those with clearly restricted diffusion (DWI-score 4), and those with equivocal diffusion pattern (DWI-score 3) and positive dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI. METHODS: This observational prospective study enrolled 389 men referred to MRI and, if positive (PI-RADS 3 with PSA-density [PSAD] ≥ 0.15 ng/mL/mL, 4 and 5), to MRI-directed biopsy. Lesions with DWI-score 3 and positive DCE were classified as “PI-RADS 3up,” instead of PI-RADS 4. Univariable and multivariable analyses were implemented to determine features correlated to csPCa detection. RESULTS: Prevalence of csPCa was 14.5% and 53.3% in PI-RADS categories 3up and 4, respectively (p < 0.001). MRI showed a sensitivity of 100.0%, specificity 40.9%, PPV 46.5%, NPV 100.0%, and accuracy 60.9% for csPCa detection. Modifying the threshold to consider MRI positive and to indicate biopsy (same as previously described, but PI-RADS 3up only when associated with elevated PSAD), the sensitivity changed to 93.9%, specificity 57.2%, PPV 53.0%, NPV 94.8%, and accuracy 69.7%. Age (p < 0.001), PSAD (p < 0.001), positive DWI (p < 0.001), and PI-RADS score (p = 0.04) resulted in independent predictors of csPCa. CONCLUSIONS: Most cases of PI-RADS 3up were false-positives, suggesting that upgrading peripheral lesions with DWI-score 3 to PI-RADS 4 because of positive DCE has a detrimental effect on MRI accuracy, decreasing the true prevalence of csPCa in the PI-RADS 4 category. PI-RADS 3up should not be upgraded and directed to biopsy only if associated with increased PSAD. KEY POINTS: • As per PI-RADS v2.1 recommendations, in case of a peripheral zone lesion with equivocal diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI score 3), but positive dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI, the overall PI-RADS score should be upgraded to 4. • The current PI-RADS recommendation of upgrading PI-RADS 3 lesions of the peripheral zone to PI-RADS 4 because of positive DCE decreased clinically significant prostate cancer detection rate in our series. • According to our results, the most accurate threshold for setting indication to prostate biopsy is PI-RADS 3 or PI-RADS 3 with positive DCE both associated with increased PSA density. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-023-09605-0.