Blood Pressure Variability and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of epidemiological data on the association between long-term variability of blood pressure (BP) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF). OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of BP variability with incident AF in a large sample of adults with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We included participants who had ≥5 BP measurements in the first 24 months of action to control cardiovascular risk in diabetes. The visit-to-visit variability of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was estimated using the coefficient of variation, SD, and variability independent of the mean. Incident AF was recorded using follow-up electrocardiograms. Modified Poisson regression was used to generate risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CI for AF. RESULTS: A total of 8,399 participants were included (average age 62.6 ± 6.5 years, 38.8% women, 63.2% White). Over a median follow-up of 5 years, 155 developed AF. Compared to the lowest quartile, the highest quartile of BP variability was associated with an increased risk of AF (RR: 1.85 [95% CI: 1.13–3.03] and 1.63 [95% CI: 1.01–2.65] for coefficient of variation of SBP and DBP, respectively). Participants in the highest quartile of both SBP and DBP had a 2-fold higher risk of AF compared to those in the lowest 3 quartiles of both SBP and DBP (RR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.29–2.93). CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of adults with type 2 diabetes, higher variability in SBP and DBP was independently associated with an increased risk of AF.