Association between the triglyceride–glucose index and the risk of mortality among patients with chronic heart failure: results from a retrospective cohort study in China

BACKGROUND: The triglyceride–glucose (TyG) index has been demonstrated to be a reliable surrogate marker of insulin resistance (IR) and an effective predictive index of cardiovascular (CV) disease risk. However, its long-term prognostic value in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) remains uncertain. METHODS: A total of 6697 consecutive patients with CHF were enrolled in this study. Patients were divided into tertiles according to their TyG index. The incidence of primary outcomes, including all-cause death and CV death, was recorded. The TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting blood glucose (mg/dL)/2]. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, a total of 2158 (32.2%) all-cause deaths and 1305 (19.5%) CV deaths were documented. The incidence of primary events from the lowest to the highest TyG index tertiles were 50.61, 64.64, and 92.25 per 1000 person-years for all-cause death and 29.05, 39.40, and 57.21 per 1000 person-years for CV death. The multivariate Cox hazards regression analysis revealed hazard ratios for all-cause and CV deaths of 1.84 (95% CI 1.61–2.10; P for trend < 0.001) and 1.94 (95% CI 1.63–2.30; P for trend < 0.001) when the highest and lowest TyG index tertiles were compared. In addition, the predictive ability of the TyG index against all-cause death was more prominent among patients with metabolic syndrome and those with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction phenotype (both P for interaction < 0.05). Furthermore, adding the TyG index to the established model for all-cause death improved the C‑statistic value (0.710 for the established model vs. 0.723 for the established model + TyG index, P < 0.01), the integrated discrimination improvement value (0.011, P < 0.01), the net reclassification improvement value (0.273, P < 0.01), and the clinical net benefit (probability range, 0.07–0.36). CONCLUSIONS: The TyG index was significantly associated with the risk of mortality, suggesting that it may be a reliable and valuable predictor for risk stratification and an effective prognostic indicator in patients with CHF. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-023-01895-4.