Incidence of stroke and its predictors among hypertensive patients in Felege Hiwot comprehensive specialized hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, a retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Globally, one in three adults has hypertension, a condition that causes 51% of all deaths from stroke. Stroke is becoming a major public health problem and the most common cause of morbidity and mortality among non-communicable diseases in the world and Ethiopia. Therefore, this study assesses the incidence of stroke and its predictors among hypertensive patients in Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia 2021. METHODS: A hospital-based retrospective follow-up study design was used, simple random sampling technique was used to select 583 hypertensive patients that had follow-up registration between January 2018 and December 30th, 2020. Data were entered into Epi-data version 3.1 and exported to STATA version 14. The adjusted hazard ratio for each predictor with a 95% confidence interval was calculated using the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and a P-value ≤ 0.05 was used to denote statistical significance. RESULTS: From 583 hypertensive patients 106(18.18%) [95% CI 15–20] were developed stroke. The overall incidence rate was 1 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.79–1.19). Comorbidities (Adjusted hazard ratio(AHR): 1.88, 95% CI 1.0–3.5), stage two hypertension (AHR = 5.21, 95%CI 2.75–9.8), uncontrolled systolic blood pressure (AHR: 2, 95% CI 1.21–354), uncontrolled diastolic blood pressure (AHR:1.9, 95% CI 1.1–3.57), alcohol consumption (AHR = 2.04, 95%CI 1.2–3.49), age 45–65 (AHR = 10.25, 95%CI 7.47–11.1); and drug discontinuation (AHR = 2.05,95% CI 1.26–3.35) were independent predictors for the incidence of stroke among hypertensive patients. CONCLUSION: The incidence of stroke among hypertensive patients was high and various modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors highly contributed to its incidence. This study recommends early screening of blood pressure, giving priority to comorbid patients and patients with advanced stage hypertension, and giving health education about behavioral risks and drug adherence.