Association between the lean nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and risk of incident type 2 diabetes in a healthy population of Northwest China: a retrospective cohort study with a 2-year follow-up period

AIMS: We aimed to explore the metabolic features of lean nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (Lean-NAFLD) and its association with the risk of incident type 2 diabetes in young and middle-aged people. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 3001 participants who were enrolled in a health check-up program from January 2018 to December 2020 in the Health Management Center of Karamay People’s Hospital. The age, sex, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, waist circumference (WC), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), lipid profiles, serum uric acid and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) of the subjects were collected. The cutoff point of BMI for lean nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is <25 kg/m(2). A COX proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze the risk ratio of lean nonalcoholic fatty liver disease to type 2 diabetes mellitus. RESULTS: Lean NAFLD participants had many metabolic abnormalities, such as overweight and obesity with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Compared with lean participants without nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, the fully adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for lean participants with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease was 3.83 (95% CI 2.02-7.24, p<0.01). In the normal waist circumference group (man<90cm, woman<80 cm), compared with lean participants without NAFLD, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of incident type 2 diabetes for lean participants with NAFLD and overweight or obese participants with NAFLD were 1.93 (95% CI 0.70-5.35, p>0.05) and 4.20 (95% CI 1.44-12.22, p<0.05), respectively. For excess waist circumference (man≥90 cm, woman ≥80 cm) compared with lean participants without NAFLD, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of incident type 2 diabetes for lean participants with NAFLD and overweight or obese participants with NAFLD were 3.88 (95% CI 1.56-9.66, p<0.05) and 3.30 (95% CI 1.52-7.14, p<0.05), respectively. CONCLUSION: Abdominal obesity is the strongest risk factor for type 2 diabetes in lean nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.