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Large-deviations of disease spreading dynamics with vaccination
We numerically simulated the spread of disease for a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model on contact networks drawn from a small-world ensemble. We investigated the impact of two types of vaccination strategies, namely random vaccination and high-degree heuristics, on the probability density f...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10332629/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37428751 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287932 |
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author | Feld, Yannick Hartmann, Alexander K. |
author_facet | Feld, Yannick Hartmann, Alexander K. |
author_sort | Feld, Yannick |
collection | PubMed |
description | We numerically simulated the spread of disease for a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model on contact networks drawn from a small-world ensemble. We investigated the impact of two types of vaccination strategies, namely random vaccination and high-degree heuristics, on the probability density function (pdf) of the cumulative number C of infected people over a large range of its support. To obtain the pdf even in the range of probabilities as small as 10(−80), we applied a large-deviation approach, in particular the 1/t Wang-Landau algorithm. To study the size-dependence of the pdfs within the framework of large-deviation theory, we analyzed the empirical rate function. To find out how typical as well as extreme mild or extreme severe infection courses arise, we investigated the structures of the time series conditioned to the observed values of C. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10332629 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-103326292023-07-11 Large-deviations of disease spreading dynamics with vaccination Feld, Yannick Hartmann, Alexander K. PLoS One Research Article We numerically simulated the spread of disease for a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model on contact networks drawn from a small-world ensemble. We investigated the impact of two types of vaccination strategies, namely random vaccination and high-degree heuristics, on the probability density function (pdf) of the cumulative number C of infected people over a large range of its support. To obtain the pdf even in the range of probabilities as small as 10(−80), we applied a large-deviation approach, in particular the 1/t Wang-Landau algorithm. To study the size-dependence of the pdfs within the framework of large-deviation theory, we analyzed the empirical rate function. To find out how typical as well as extreme mild or extreme severe infection courses arise, we investigated the structures of the time series conditioned to the observed values of C. Public Library of Science 2023-07-10 /pmc/articles/PMC10332629/ /pubmed/37428751 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287932 Text en © 2023 Feld, Hartmann https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Feld, Yannick Hartmann, Alexander K. Large-deviations of disease spreading dynamics with vaccination |
title | Large-deviations of disease spreading dynamics with vaccination |
title_full | Large-deviations of disease spreading dynamics with vaccination |
title_fullStr | Large-deviations of disease spreading dynamics with vaccination |
title_full_unstemmed | Large-deviations of disease spreading dynamics with vaccination |
title_short | Large-deviations of disease spreading dynamics with vaccination |
title_sort | large-deviations of disease spreading dynamics with vaccination |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10332629/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37428751 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287932 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT feldyannick largedeviationsofdiseasespreadingdynamicswithvaccination AT hartmannalexanderk largedeviationsofdiseasespreadingdynamicswithvaccination |