Spatial differences and influence mechanisms of construction land development intensity in China, 2002–2020

Construction land development intensity is a spatial mapping of modern urbanization level, which integrally reflects urban development strategy, land use efficiency, and population carrying intensity. This article analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of construction land development intensity using panel data of 31 provincial administrative divisions in China from 2002 to 2020, with the application of the Theil index and spatial autocorrelation. To further investigate the relationship between human activities and land development, the article used geographic detectors to analyze the influencing mechanisms. The results showed that: (1) The average intensity of construction land development of Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2020 showed a trend of "steady increase, a short decline, and then a steady increase," and there were significant differences in the characteristics of construction land development intensity changes in different regions. (2) The regional differences in construction land development intensity between provinces showed a decreasing trend. There were uneven differences among regions, with more minor regional differences in Central, South, and North China but more significant differences in Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast China. (3) The spatial agglomeration of construction land development intensity in the region increased initially and then decreased during the study period. The overall pattern was "small agglomeration and large dispersion." (4) Economic development factors such as GDP per land, industrial structure, and fixed asset investment completion significantly affect land development intensity. The interaction between the factors was apparent, and the effect of “1 + 1 > 2” was produced. Based on the study's results, it is suggested that scientific regional development planning, guiding inter-provincial factor flow, and rational control of land development efforts are the key to promoting sustainable regional development.