Estimation of migraine prevalence considering active and inactive states across different age groups

BACKGROUND: Migraine is a very common headache disorder on the population level, characterized by symptomatic attacks (activity). For many people with migraine, the migraine symptoms intermittently or permanently cease during their lifetime (inactive migraine). The current diagnostic classification of migraine considers two states: active migraine (having migraine symptoms within the last year) and not having active migraine (including both individuals with inactive migraine and those who never had migraine). Defining a state of inactive migraine that has gone into remission may better capture the trajectories of migraine across the lifespan and contribute to a better understanding of its biological processes. We aimed to quantify the prevalence of never, active, and inactive migraine separately, using modern prevalence and incidence estimation methodology to better describe the complexity of migraine trajectories at the population level. METHODS: Using a multistate modeling approach, data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, and results from a population-based study, we estimated the transition rates by which individuals moved between migraine disease states and estimated prevalences of never, active and inactive migraine. We used data from the GBD project and a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 people with a starting age of 30 and 30 years of follow-up, both in Germany and globally, stratified by sex. RESULTS: In Germany, the estimated rate of transition from active to inactive migraine (remission rate) increased after the age of 22.5 in women and 27.5 in men. The pattern for men in Germany was similar to the one observed on the global level. The prevalence of inactive migraine among women reaches 25.7% in Germany and 16.5% globally at age 60. For men, the inactive migraine prevalence estimates at the same age were 10.4% in Germany and 7.1% globally. CONCLUSIONS: Considering an inactive migraine state explicitly reflects a different epidemiological picture of migraine across the lifecourse. We have demonstrated that many women of older ages may be in an inactive migraine state. Many pressing research questions can only be answered if population-based cohort studies collect information not only on active migraine but also on inactive migraine states. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s10194-023-01624-y.