Avoidable diet-related deaths and cost-of-illness with culturally optimized modifications in diet: The case of Brazil

BACKGROUND: Dietary risk factors have an important impact on premature deaths and disabilities due to non-communicable diseases. In this study, we perform diet optimization to design different dietary scenarios taking into account food prices and preferences and evaluate the number of deaths that would be prevented as well as the economic burden and costs from the health system that would be saved in Brazil. METHODS: We used dietary intake and food prices data from the nationwide Household Budget Survey (HBS) and the National Dietary Survey (NDS) 2017–2018. Linear programming models were performed to design five scenarios which different sets of key diet modifications at the least deviation from the baseline consumption. Comparative risk assessment models were used to estimate the health impacts of optimized dietary changes on mortality and the economic impacts on morbidity (hospitalizations) and premature deaths. RESULTS: The optimized diets were, on average, more expensive than the baseline diets, varying from Int$ (international dollar) 0.02/day to 0.52/day/adult. The number of deaths prevented or postponed varied from 12,750 (10,178–15,225) to 57,341 (48,573–66,298) according to the different scenarios. The diet modifications would save from 50 to 219 million in hospitalizations and from 239 to 804 million yearly in productivity losses with the reduction of premature deaths. CONCLUSION: A substantial number of deaths and costs due to hospitalization and productivity losses would be avoidable even with small changes in diets. However, even the cheapest intervention might be prohibitive for deprived families, yet subsidies and social policies could contribute to improving diets.