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Future burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Chile: a multistate life table modeling study

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have quantified the current burden of diseases attributable to overweight in Chile. However, no study has estimated the attributable burden of overweight in the future. Herein, we estimated the potential impact of different trajectories in the prevalence of overweight on...

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Autores principales: Fuentes, Rodrigo, Nilson, Eduardo, Rezende, Leandro F. M., Christofaro, Diego Giulliano Destro, Silva, Danilo R., Ferrero-Hernández, Paloma, Cristi-Montero, Carlos, Marques, Adilson, Farías-Valenzuela, Claudio, Ferrari, Gerson
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10337135/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37438831
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16255-w
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author Fuentes, Rodrigo
Nilson, Eduardo
Rezende, Leandro F. M.
Christofaro, Diego Giulliano Destro
Silva, Danilo R.
Ferrero-Hernández, Paloma
Cristi-Montero, Carlos
Marques, Adilson
Farías-Valenzuela, Claudio
Ferrari, Gerson
author_facet Fuentes, Rodrigo
Nilson, Eduardo
Rezende, Leandro F. M.
Christofaro, Diego Giulliano Destro
Silva, Danilo R.
Ferrero-Hernández, Paloma
Cristi-Montero, Carlos
Marques, Adilson
Farías-Valenzuela, Claudio
Ferrari, Gerson
author_sort Fuentes, Rodrigo
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Previous studies have quantified the current burden of diseases attributable to overweight in Chile. However, no study has estimated the attributable burden of overweight in the future. Herein, we estimated the potential impact of different trajectories in the prevalence of overweight on the incidence and mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Chilean adults from 2019 to 2030. METHODS: A multistate life table modelling was used to estimate the business-as-usual (BAU: if the current rate of increase in BMI persist through the next 11 years; i.e., 0.4% per year from 2003 to 2017) and three counterfactual scenarios (1: the increase rate of overweight is reduced by half; 2: maintanance of the current prevalence of overweight; 3: the prevalence of overweight is reduced by 6.7%) over a 11-year simulation period for burden of NCDs attributable to overweight in Chilean adults aged 20 to 80 years. The model inputs included nationally representative data of body mass index, national official demographic records, NCDs from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019, and relative risks from a published meta-analysis. RESULTS: If the current trends of increase in overweight are maintained in Chile, approximately, 669 thousand cases and 117 thousand deaths from NCDs will occur from 2020 to 2030. In case the increase rate of overweight is reduced by half during this period, around 7 thousand cases and 1.4 thousand deaths from NCDs would be prevented, while achieving no increase in the prevalence of overweight would avert 10 thousand cases and 2 thousand deaths. In the optimistic scenario of reducing the prevalence of overweight by 6.7% until 2030, approximately 25 thousand cases and 5 thousand deaths from NCDs would be prevented. CONCLUSION: We estimated that the number of NCDs cases and deaths that could be avoided by decreasing the prevalence of overweight in Chilean adults. Preventive programs aimed to reduce overweight may have a high impact on the future burden of NCDs in Chile.
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spelling pubmed-103371352023-07-13 Future burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Chile: a multistate life table modeling study Fuentes, Rodrigo Nilson, Eduardo Rezende, Leandro F. M. Christofaro, Diego Giulliano Destro Silva, Danilo R. Ferrero-Hernández, Paloma Cristi-Montero, Carlos Marques, Adilson Farías-Valenzuela, Claudio Ferrari, Gerson BMC Public Health Research BACKGROUND: Previous studies have quantified the current burden of diseases attributable to overweight in Chile. However, no study has estimated the attributable burden of overweight in the future. Herein, we estimated the potential impact of different trajectories in the prevalence of overweight on the incidence and mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Chilean adults from 2019 to 2030. METHODS: A multistate life table modelling was used to estimate the business-as-usual (BAU: if the current rate of increase in BMI persist through the next 11 years; i.e., 0.4% per year from 2003 to 2017) and three counterfactual scenarios (1: the increase rate of overweight is reduced by half; 2: maintanance of the current prevalence of overweight; 3: the prevalence of overweight is reduced by 6.7%) over a 11-year simulation period for burden of NCDs attributable to overweight in Chilean adults aged 20 to 80 years. The model inputs included nationally representative data of body mass index, national official demographic records, NCDs from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019, and relative risks from a published meta-analysis. RESULTS: If the current trends of increase in overweight are maintained in Chile, approximately, 669 thousand cases and 117 thousand deaths from NCDs will occur from 2020 to 2030. In case the increase rate of overweight is reduced by half during this period, around 7 thousand cases and 1.4 thousand deaths from NCDs would be prevented, while achieving no increase in the prevalence of overweight would avert 10 thousand cases and 2 thousand deaths. In the optimistic scenario of reducing the prevalence of overweight by 6.7% until 2030, approximately 25 thousand cases and 5 thousand deaths from NCDs would be prevented. CONCLUSION: We estimated that the number of NCDs cases and deaths that could be avoided by decreasing the prevalence of overweight in Chilean adults. Preventive programs aimed to reduce overweight may have a high impact on the future burden of NCDs in Chile. BioMed Central 2023-07-12 /pmc/articles/PMC10337135/ /pubmed/37438831 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16255-w Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research
Fuentes, Rodrigo
Nilson, Eduardo
Rezende, Leandro F. M.
Christofaro, Diego Giulliano Destro
Silva, Danilo R.
Ferrero-Hernández, Paloma
Cristi-Montero, Carlos
Marques, Adilson
Farías-Valenzuela, Claudio
Ferrari, Gerson
Future burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Chile: a multistate life table modeling study
title Future burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Chile: a multistate life table modeling study
title_full Future burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Chile: a multistate life table modeling study
title_fullStr Future burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Chile: a multistate life table modeling study
title_full_unstemmed Future burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Chile: a multistate life table modeling study
title_short Future burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Chile: a multistate life table modeling study
title_sort future burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in chile: a multistate life table modeling study
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10337135/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37438831
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16255-w
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