Conditional Metastasis of Uveal Melanoma in 8091 Patients over Half-Century (51 Years) by Age Group: Assessing the Entire Population and the Extremes of Age

PURPOSE: To evaluate cumulative incidence of metastasis at specific timepoints after treatment of uveal melanoma in a large cohort of patients and to provide comparison of conditional outcomes in the youngest and oldest cohorts (extremes of age). METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 8091 consecutive patients with uveal melanoma at a single center over a 51-year period. The patients were categorized by age at presentation (0–29 years [n = 348, 4%], 30–59 years [n = 3859, 48%], 60–79 years [n = 3425, 42%], 80 to 99 years [n = 459, 6%]) and evaluated for nonconditional (from presentation date) and conditional (from specific timepoints after presentation) cumulative incidence of metastasis at five, 10, 20, and 30 years. RESULTS: For the entire population of 8091 patients, five-year/10-year/20-year/30-year nonconditional cumulative incidence of metastasis was 15%/23%/32%/36%, and the conditional incidence improved to 6%/15%/25%/30% for patients who did not develop metastasis in the first three years. For the extremes of age (0–29 years and 80–99 years), the nonconditional cumulative incidence of metastasis revealed the younger cohort with superior outcomes at 8%/15%/19%/27% and 21%/29%/29%/29%, respectively (P < 0.001). The conditional incidence (at one-year and two-year timepoints with metastasis-free survival) showed persistent superior younger cohort survival (P < 0.001, P = 0.001), but no further benefit for patients with three-year metastasis-free survival at 4%/12%/16%/24% and 7%/18%/18%/18%, respectively (P = 0.09). CONCLUSIONS: Non-conditional metastasis-free survival analysis for patients with uveal melanoma revealed the youngest cohort to have significantly better survival than the oldest cohort, and this persisted into one-year and two-year conditional metastasis-free survival but diminished at the three-year conditional timepoint.