Seasonal variation in the incidence of primary intracerebral hemorrhage: a 16-year nationwide analysis

INTRODUCTION: Data on nationwide trends and seasonal variations in the incidence of Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ICH) in the United States (US) are lacking. METHODS: We used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2004–2019) and Census Bureau data to calculate the quarterly (Q1:January-March; Q2:April-June; Q3:July-September; Q4:October-December) incidence rates (IR) of adult (≥18 years) ICH hospitalizations, aggregated across Q1–Q4 and Q2–Q3. We report adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for differences in the quarterly incidence of ICH, as compared to acute ischemic stroke (AIS), between Q1Q4 and Q2Q3 using a multivariable Poisson regression model. We additionally performed stratified analyses across the four US regions. RESULTS: Among 822,143 (49.0% female) ICH and 6,266,234 (51.9% female) AIS hospitalizations, the average quarterly crude IR of ICH was consistently higher in Q1Q4 compared to Q2Q3 (5.6 vs. 5.2 per 100,000) (aIRR, CI: 1.09, 1.08–1.11)—this pattern was similar across all four US regions. However, a similar variation pattern was not observed for AIS incidence. The incidence (aIRR, CI) of both ICH (1.01, 1.00–1.02) and AIS (1.03, 1.02–1.03) is rising. CONCLUSION: Unlike AIS, ICH incidence is consistently higher in colder quarters, underscoring the need for evaluation and prevention of factors driving seasonal variations in ICH incidence.