Who should receive single-fraction palliative radiotherapy for gastric cancer bleeding?: An exploratory analysis of a multicenter prospective observational study (JROSG 17-3)

PURPOSE: Although the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) has been used to predict survival in various cancers, to our knowledge, no study has examined its applicability in gastric cancer. This study aimed to determine the baseline PPI cutoff value for recommending single-fraction radiotherapy in patients with bleeding gastric cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of the Japanese Radiation Oncology Study Group (JROSG) 17–3, a multicenter prospective study of palliative radiotherapy for bleeding gastric cancer. Discrimination was evaluated using a time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, and the optimal cutoff value was determined using the Youden index. A calibration plot was used to assess the agreement between predicted and observed survival. RESULTS: We enrolled 55 patients in JROSG 17–3. The respective median survival times were 6.7, 2.8, and 1.0 months (p = 0.021) for patients with baseline PPI scores of ≤ 2, 2 < PPI ≤ 4, and PPI > 4. The areas under the curve for predicting death within 2, 3, 4, and 5 months were 0.813, 0.787, 0.775, and 0.721, respectively. The negative predictive value was highest when survival < 2 months was predicted and the Youden index was highest when the cutoff PPI value was 2. The calibration curve showed a reasonable agreement between the predicted and observed survival. CONCLUSION: Baseline PPI is useful for estimating short-term prognosis in patients treated with palliative radiotherapy for gastric cancer bleeding. A cutoff PPI value of 2 for estimating survival ≤ 2 months should be used to recommend single-fraction radiotherapy.