Heart Rate Recovery as a Predictor of Long-Term Adverse Events after Negative Exercise Testing in Patients with Chest Pain and Pre-Test Probability of Coronary Artery Disease from 15% to 65%

Background: The prognosis of patients with chest pain after a negative exercise test is good, but some adverse events occur in this low-risk group. The aim of our study was to identify predictors of long-term adverse events after a negative exercise test in patients with chest pain and a lower intermediate (15–65%) pre-test probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) and to assess the prognostic value of exercise electrocardiography and exercise stress echocardiography in this group of patients. Methods: We identified from our stress test laboratory database 862 patients with chest pain without previously known CAD and with a pre-test probability of CAD ranging from 15 to 65% (mean 41 ± 14%) who underwent exercise testing. Patients were followed for the occurrence of death, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and clinically guided revascularization. Results: During the median follow-up of 94 months, 87 patients (10.1%) had an adverse event (AE). A total of 30 patients died (3.5%), 23 patients suffered non-fatal MI (2.7%) and 34 patients (3.9%) had clinically guided revascularization (20 patients percutaneous and 14 patients surgical revascularizations). Male gender, age, the presence of diabetes and a slow heart rate recovery (HRR) in the first minute after exercise were independently related to the occurrence of AEs. Adverse events occurred in 10.3% of patients who were tested by exercise stress echocardiography and in 10.0% of those who underwent stress electrocardiography (p = 0.888). Conclusion: The risk of AEs after negative exercise testing in patients with a pre-test probability of CAD of 15–65% is low. Male patients with a history of diabetes and slow HRR in the first minute after exercise have an increased risk of an adverse outcome.