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Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan
The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen for several decades. The striking fertility increase poses questions regarding the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNI...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Springer Netherlands
2023
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10344851/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37440003 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10680-023-09671-6 |
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author | Kan, Maxim |
author_facet | Kan, Maxim |
author_sort | Kan, Maxim |
collection | PubMed |
description | The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen for several decades. The striking fertility increase poses questions regarding the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions to one, two, three, and four children. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern is evident for both main ethnicities in Kazakhstan and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates a reversed fertility transition and also that the previous fertility decline in the 1990s was not part of a general transition towards below-replacement fertility but rather a reflection of economic crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10344851 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Springer Netherlands |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-103448512023-07-15 Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan Kan, Maxim Eur J Popul Original Research The fertility rates of Kazakhstan have reversed to levels not seen for several decades. The striking fertility increase poses questions regarding the extent to which this new development is shared across socio-demographic groups and the nature of fertility recuperation. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions to one, two, three, and four children. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern is evident for both main ethnicities in Kazakhstan and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates a reversed fertility transition and also that the previous fertility decline in the 1990s was not part of a general transition towards below-replacement fertility but rather a reflection of economic crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Springer Netherlands 2023-07-13 /pmc/articles/PMC10344851/ /pubmed/37440003 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10680-023-09671-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Original Research Kan, Maxim Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan |
title | Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan |
title_full | Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan |
title_fullStr | Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan |
title_full_unstemmed | Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan |
title_short | Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan |
title_sort | sustained and universal fertility recuperation in kazakhstan |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10344851/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37440003 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10680-023-09671-6 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT kanmaxim sustainedanduniversalfertilityrecuperationinkazakhstan |