A simple scoring system for the prediction of early pregnancy loss developed by following 13,977 infertile patients after in vitro fertilization

A retrospective study was conducted to investigate a convenient simple scoring system for the prediction of early pregnancy loss (EPL) based on simple demographics. A total of 13,977 women undergoing transvaginal ultrasound scans on Days 27–29 after in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF-ET) from June 2016 and December 2017 were included. The first trimester pregnancy outcome was recorded at 12 weeks of gestation. The areas under the curve of this scoring system were 0.884 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.870–0.899) and 0.890 (95% CI 0.878–0.903) in the training set and test set, respectively. The score totals ranged from -8 to 14 points. A score of 5 points, which offered the highest predictive accuracy (94.01%) and corresponded to a 30% miscarriage risk, was chosen as the cutoff value, with a sensitivity of 62.84%, specificity of 98.79%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 88.87% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 94.54% for the prediction of EPL in the training set. In the test set, a score of 5 points had a sensitivity of 64.69%, specificity of 98.78%, PPV of 89.87% and NPV of 93.62%, and 93.91% of the cases were correctly predicted. Therefore, the simple scoring system using conventionally collected data can be conveniently used to predict EPL after ET. However, considering the limitations, its predictive value needs to be further verified in future clinical practice. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40001-023-01218-z.