ClinVar and HGMD genomic variant classification accuracy has improved over time, as measured by implied disease burden

BACKGROUND: Curated databases of genetic variants assist clinicians and researchers in interpreting genetic variation. Yet, these databases contain some misclassified variants. It is unclear whether variant misclassification is abating as these databases rapidly grow and implement new guidelines. METHODS: Using archives of ClinVar and HGMD, we investigated how variant misclassification has changed over 6 years, across different ancestry groups. We considered inborn errors of metabolism (IEMs) screened in newborns as a model system because these disorders are often highly penetrant with neonatal phenotypes. We used samples from the 1000 Genomes Project (1KGP) to identify individuals with genotypes that were classified by the databases as pathogenic. Due to the rarity of IEMs, nearly all such classified pathogenic genotypes indicate likely variant misclassification in ClinVar or HGMD. RESULTS: While the false-positive rates of both ClinVar and HGMD have improved over time, HGMD variants currently imply two orders of magnitude more affected individuals in 1KGP than ClinVar variants. We observed that African ancestry individuals have a significantly increased chance of being incorrectly indicated to be affected by a screened IEM when HGMD variants are used. However, this bias affecting genomes of African ancestry was no longer significant once common variants were removed in accordance with recent variant classification guidelines. We discovered that ClinVar variants classified as Pathogenic or Likely Pathogenic are reclassified sixfold more often than DM or DM? variants in HGMD, which has likely resulted in ClinVar’s lower false-positive rate. CONCLUSIONS: Considering misclassified variants that have since been reclassified reveals our increasing understanding of rare genetic variation. We found that variant classification guidelines and allele frequency databases comprising genetically diverse samples are important factors in reclassification. We also discovered that ClinVar variants common in European and South Asian individuals were more likely to be reclassified to a lower confidence category, perhaps due to an increased chance of these variants being classified by multiple submitters. We discuss features for variant classification databases that would support their continued improvement. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13073-023-01199-y.