External validation of Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute Decompensation score in the risk stratification of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with acute variceal bleeding

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a serious life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. This study aimed to validate the predictive value of Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) in the risk stratification of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with AVB. METHODS: A total of 235 cirrhotic patients with AVB and without acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) were retrospectively enrolled. The discrimination, calibration, overall performance and clinical utility of CLIF-C AD were evaluated and compared with traditional prognostic scores. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of CLIF-C AD was significantly or numerically higher than that of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) (0.871 vs. 0.737, P = 0.03), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) (0.871 vs. 0.757, P = 0.1) and MELD-Sodium (MELD-Na) (0.871 vs. 0.822, P = 0.45). The calibration of CLIF-C AD was excellent and superior to that of CTP, MELD and MELD-Na. The brier score/R(2) value for CLIF-C AD, CTP, MELD and MELD-Na were 0.045/0.278, 0.051/0.090, 0.050/0.123 and 0.046/0.207, respectively, suggesting a superior overall performance of CLIF-C AD to traditional scores. In decision curve analysis, the standardized net benefit of CLIF-C AD was higher to that of traditional scores. Patients with CLIF-C ADs ≤48, 49–59 and ≥60 were, respectively, stratified into low, moderate and high-risk groups (6-week mortality: 2.7% vs. 12.5% vs. 37.5%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The prediction performance and clinical utility of CLIF-C AD for 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients with AVB and without ACLF are excellent and superior to traditional prognostic scores. The new risk stratification with CLIF-C ADs may be useful in guiding rational management of AVB.