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Epidemic thresholds and human mobility
A comprehensive view of disease epidemics demands a deep understanding of the complex interplay between human behaviour and infectious diseases. Here, we propose a flexible modelling framework that brings conclusions about the influence of human mobility and disease transmission on early epidemic gr...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10349094/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37452118 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38395-0 |
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author | Pardo-Araujo, Marta García-García, David Alonso, David Bartumeus, Frederic |
author_facet | Pardo-Araujo, Marta García-García, David Alonso, David Bartumeus, Frederic |
author_sort | Pardo-Araujo, Marta |
collection | PubMed |
description | A comprehensive view of disease epidemics demands a deep understanding of the complex interplay between human behaviour and infectious diseases. Here, we propose a flexible modelling framework that brings conclusions about the influence of human mobility and disease transmission on early epidemic growth, with applicability in outbreak preparedness. We use random matrix theory to compute an epidemic threshold, equivalent to the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] , for a SIR metapopulation model. The model includes both systematic and random features of human mobility. Variations in disease transmission rates, mobility modes (i.e. commuting and migration), and connectivity strengths determine the threshold value and whether or not a disease may potentially establish in the population, as well as the local incidence distribution. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10349094 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-103490942023-07-16 Epidemic thresholds and human mobility Pardo-Araujo, Marta García-García, David Alonso, David Bartumeus, Frederic Sci Rep Article A comprehensive view of disease epidemics demands a deep understanding of the complex interplay between human behaviour and infectious diseases. Here, we propose a flexible modelling framework that brings conclusions about the influence of human mobility and disease transmission on early epidemic growth, with applicability in outbreak preparedness. We use random matrix theory to compute an epidemic threshold, equivalent to the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] , for a SIR metapopulation model. The model includes both systematic and random features of human mobility. Variations in disease transmission rates, mobility modes (i.e. commuting and migration), and connectivity strengths determine the threshold value and whether or not a disease may potentially establish in the population, as well as the local incidence distribution. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-07-14 /pmc/articles/PMC10349094/ /pubmed/37452118 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38395-0 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Pardo-Araujo, Marta García-García, David Alonso, David Bartumeus, Frederic Epidemic thresholds and human mobility |
title | Epidemic thresholds and human mobility |
title_full | Epidemic thresholds and human mobility |
title_fullStr | Epidemic thresholds and human mobility |
title_full_unstemmed | Epidemic thresholds and human mobility |
title_short | Epidemic thresholds and human mobility |
title_sort | epidemic thresholds and human mobility |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10349094/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37452118 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38395-0 |
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