MRI-based radiomic prognostic signature for locally advanced oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: development, testing and comparison with genomic prognostic signatures

BACKGROUND: . At present, the prognostic prediction in advanced oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) is based on the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system, and the most used imaging modality in these patients is magnetic resonance image (MRI). With the aim to improve the prediction, we developed an MRI-based radiomic signature as a prognostic marker for overall survival (OS) in OCSCC patients and compared it with published gene expression signatures for prognosis of OS in head and neck cancer patients, replicated herein on our OCSCC dataset. METHODS: For each patient, 1072 radiomic features were extracted from T1 and T2-weighted MRI (T1w and T2w). Features selection was performed, and an optimal set of five of them was used to fit a Cox proportional hazard regression model for OS. The radiomic signature was developed on a multi-centric locally advanced OCSCC retrospective dataset (n = 123) and validated on a prospective cohort (n = 108). RESULTS: The performance of the signature was evaluated in terms of C-index (0.68 (IQR 0.66–0.70)), hazard ratio (HR 2.64 (95% CI 1.62–4.31)), and high/low risk group stratification (log-rank p < 0.001, Kaplan-Meier curves). When tested on a multi-centric prospective cohort (n = 108), the signature had a C-index of 0.62 (IQR 0.58–0.64) and outperformed the clinical and pathologic TNM stage and six out of seven gene expression prognostic signatures. In addition, the significant difference of the radiomic signature between stages III and IVa/b in patients receiving surgery suggests a potential association of MRI features with the pathologic stage. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the present study suggests that MRI signatures, containing non-invasive and cost-effective remarkable information, could be exploited as prognostic tools. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40364-023-00494-5.