High triglyceride-glucose index and stress hyperglycemia ratio as predictors of adverse cardiac events in patients with coronary chronic total occlusion: a large-scale prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and the stress hyperglycaemia ratio (SHR) are both positively associated with cardiovascular (CV) risk in patients with coronary heart disease. However, the prognostic value of these two biomarkers has not been well elucidated in patients with chronic total occlusion (CTO). Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the association of the TyG index and the SHR with long-term prognosis in patients with CTO. METHODS: This prospective cohort study consecutively included 2740 angina patients with CTO from January 2017 to December 2018 at Fuwai Hospital. The outcomes are a composite of CV death and target vessel myocardial infarction (TVMI) and major CV cerebrovascular adverse events (MACCEs, including all-cause death, nonfatal MI, ischaemia-driven target vessel revascularization, and stroke). The association between biomarkers and prognosis was analysed by multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, and the predictive value was determined by a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: During the follow-up with a median time of 3 years, 179 (6.5%) cases of MACCEs and 47 (1.7%) cases of CV death or TVMI were recorded. Patients with a high TyG index (> 9.10) and a high SHR (> 0.87) showed a significantly increased risk of CV death/TVMI (TyG index: HR 4.23, 95% CI 1.58–11.37; SHR: HR 5.14, 95% CI 1.89–13.98) and MACCEs (TyG index: HR 2.47, 95% CI 1.54–3.97; SHR: HR 2.91, 95% CI 1.84–4.60) compared with those with a low Tyg index and a low SHR (TyG < 8.56, SHR < 0.76). The area under the curve (AUC) values were 0.623 (TyG index) and 0.589 (SHR) for CV death/TVMI and 0.659 (TyG index) and 0.624 (SHR) for MACCEs. Furthermore, patients with both a high TyG index and a high SHR showed the highest risk of clinical outcomes among patients with different levels of these two biomarkers, and the AUC for the TyG-SHR combination was larger than the TyG index alone in predicting MACCE risk. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed that a high TyG index and a high SHR were significantly correlated with poor prognosis in patients with CTO and suggested that these two biomarkers are reliable in predicting long-term prognosis in CTO patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-023-01883-8.