The association between disability progression, relapses, and treatment in early relapse onset MS: an observational, multi-centre, longitudinal cohort study

The indirect contribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses to disability worsening outcomes, and vice-versa, remains unclear. Disease modifying therapies (DMTs) are potential modulators of this association. Understanding how these endo-phenotypes interact may provide insights into disease pathogenesis and treatment practice in relapse-onset MS (ROMS). Utilising a unique, prospectively collected clinical data from a longitudinal cohort of 279 first demyelinating event cases followed for up to 15 years post-onset, we examined indirect associations between relapses and treatment and the risk of disability worsening, and vice-versa. Indirect association parameters were estimated using joint models for longitudinal and survival data. Early relapses within 2.5 years of MS onset predicted early disability worsening outcomes (HR = 3.45, C.I 2.29–3.61) per relapse, but did not contribute to long-term disability worsening thereinafter (HR = 0.21, C.I 0.15–0.28). Conversely, disability worsening outcomes significantly contributed to relapse risk each year (HR = 2.96, C.I 2.91–3.02), and persisted over time (HR = 3.34, C.I 2.90–3.86), regardless of DMT treatments. The duration of DMTs significantly reduced the hazards of relapses (1st-line DMTs: HR = 0.68, C.I 0.58–0.79; 3rd-line DMTs: HR = 0.37, C.I 0.32–0.44) and disability worsening events (1st-line DMTs: HR = 0.74, C.I 0.69–0.79; 3rd-line DMTs: HR = 0.90, C.I 0.85–0.95), respectively. Results from time-dynamic survival probabilities further revealed individuals having higher risk of future relapses and disability worsening outcomes, respectively. The study provided evidence that in ROMS, relapses accrued within 2.5 years of MS onset are strong indicators of disability worsening outcomes, but late relapses accrued 2.5 years post onset are not overt risk factors for further disability worsening. In contrast, disability worsening outcomes are strong positive predictors of current and subsequent relapse risk. Long-term DMT use and older age strongly influence the individual outcomes and their associations.