Socioeconomic determinants of stay-at-home policies during the first COVID-19 wave

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on public health and social systems worldwide. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of various policies and restrictions implemented by different countries to control the spread of the virus. METHODS: To achieve this objective, a compartmental model is used to quantify the “social permeability” of a population, which reflects the inability of individuals to remain in confinement and continue social mixing allowing the spread of the virus. The model is calibrated to fit and recreate the dynamics of the epidemic spreading of 42 countries, mainly taking into account reported deaths and mobility across the populations. RESULTS: The results indicate that low-income countries have a harder time slowing the advance of the pandemic, even if the virus did not initially propagate as fast as in wealthier countries, showing the disparities between countries in their ability to mitigate the spread of the disease and its impact on vulnerable populations. DISCUSSION: This research contributes to a better understanding of the socioeconomic and environmental factors that affect the spread of the virus and the need for equitable policy measures to address the disparities in the global response to the pandemic.