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Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology
Strong natural variability has been thought to mask possible climate-change-driven trends in phytoplankton populations from Earth-observing satellites. More than 30 years of continuous data were thought to be needed to detect a trend driven by climate change(1). Here we show that climate-change tren...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10356596/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37438519 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06321-z |
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author | Cael, B. B. Bisson, Kelsey Boss, Emmanuel Dutkiewicz, Stephanie Henson, Stephanie |
author_facet | Cael, B. B. Bisson, Kelsey Boss, Emmanuel Dutkiewicz, Stephanie Henson, Stephanie |
author_sort | Cael, B. B. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Strong natural variability has been thought to mask possible climate-change-driven trends in phytoplankton populations from Earth-observing satellites. More than 30 years of continuous data were thought to be needed to detect a trend driven by climate change(1). Here we show that climate-change trends emerge more rapidly in ocean colour (remote-sensing reflectance, R(rs)), because R(rs) is multivariate and some wavebands have low interannual variability. We analyse a 20-year R(rs) time series from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite, and find significant trends in R(rs) for 56% of the global surface ocean, mainly equatorward of 40°. The climate-change signal in R(rs) emerges after 20 years in similar regions covering a similar fraction of the ocean in a state-of-the-art ecosystem model(2), which suggests that our observed trends indicate shifts in ocean colour—and, by extension, in surface-ocean ecosystems—that are driven by climate change. On the whole, low-latitude oceans have become greener in the past 20 years. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10356596 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-103565962023-07-21 Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology Cael, B. B. Bisson, Kelsey Boss, Emmanuel Dutkiewicz, Stephanie Henson, Stephanie Nature Article Strong natural variability has been thought to mask possible climate-change-driven trends in phytoplankton populations from Earth-observing satellites. More than 30 years of continuous data were thought to be needed to detect a trend driven by climate change(1). Here we show that climate-change trends emerge more rapidly in ocean colour (remote-sensing reflectance, R(rs)), because R(rs) is multivariate and some wavebands have low interannual variability. We analyse a 20-year R(rs) time series from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite, and find significant trends in R(rs) for 56% of the global surface ocean, mainly equatorward of 40°. The climate-change signal in R(rs) emerges after 20 years in similar regions covering a similar fraction of the ocean in a state-of-the-art ecosystem model(2), which suggests that our observed trends indicate shifts in ocean colour—and, by extension, in surface-ocean ecosystems—that are driven by climate change. On the whole, low-latitude oceans have become greener in the past 20 years. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-07-12 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10356596/ /pubmed/37438519 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06321-z Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Cael, B. B. Bisson, Kelsey Boss, Emmanuel Dutkiewicz, Stephanie Henson, Stephanie Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology |
title | Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology |
title_full | Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology |
title_fullStr | Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology |
title_full_unstemmed | Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology |
title_short | Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology |
title_sort | global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10356596/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37438519 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06321-z |
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