Establishment of a risk stratification model based on the combination of post-treatment serum squamous cell carcinoma antigen levels and FIGO stage of cervical cancer for treatment and surveillance decision-making

OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk stratification model based on the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging combined with squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC-Ag) for the classification of patients with cervical squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) into different risk groups. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the data of 664 women with stage IIA–IVB CSCC according to the 2018 FIGO staging system who received definitive radiotherapy from March 2013 to December 2017 at the department of radiation oncology of Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center. Cutoff values for continuous variables were estimated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Using recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) modeling, overall survival was predicted based on the prognostic factors determined via Cox regression analysis. The predictive performance of the RPA model was assessed using the consistency index (C-index). Intergroup survival differences were determined and compared using Kaplan–Meier analysis and the log-rank test. RESULTS: Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified post-treatment SCC-Ag (< 1.35 ng/mL and > 1.35 ng/mL; hazard ratio (HR), 4.000; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.911–5.496; P < 0.0001) and FIGO stage (II, III, and IV; HR, 2.582, 95% CI, 1.947–3.426; P < 0.0001) as the independent outcome predictors for overall survival. The RPA model based on the above prognostic factors divided the patients into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups. Significant differences in overall survival were observed among the three groups (5-year overall survival: low vs. intermediate vs. high, 91.3% vs. 76.7% vs. 29.5%, P < 0.0001). The predictive performance of the RPA model (C-index, 0.732; 95% CI, 0.701–0.763) was prominently superior to that of post-treatment SCC-Ag (C-index, 0.668; 95% CI, 0.635–0.702; P < 0.0001) and FIGO stage (C-index, 0.663; 95% CI, 0.631–0.695; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The RPA model based on FIGO staging and post-treatment SCC-Ag can predict the overall survival of patients with CSCC, thereby providing a guide for the formulation of risk-adaptive treatment and individualized follow-up strategies. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00432-022-04558-1.