The mesenchymal circulating tumor cells as biomarker for prognosis prediction and supervision in hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common cancers and a leading cause of death worldwide. Accurate prognosis prediction tools are urgently needed. While the use of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) as prognostic prediction tool has a clear potential. METHODS: We established a comprehensive, negative enrichment-based strategy for CTCs analysis in patients with HCC, involving identification of epithelial CTCs (E-CTCs) and mesenchymal CTCs (M-CTCs) through specific biomarker. This strategy was performed in 127 HCC cases, 21 nonmalignant liver disease (NMLD) patients and 42 health control to analyze the relevance between CTCs and tumor recurrence. RESULTS: The total CTC number and M-CTC percent were positively correlated with tumor malignancy and high recurrence risk. Individually, preoperative total CTC number and M-CTC percent could robustly distinguish relapse cases from those with no relapse, with sensitivity of 80.95% and 90.48%, specificity of 74.12% and 84.71%, respectively. Levels of preoperative total CTC number and M-CTC percent can both be regarded as independent risk factors for HCC with early recurrence (P = 0.0053, P < 0.0001), and are both significantly correlated with worse recurrence-free survival (RFS) (log rank P < 0.0001; HR 7.78, 95% CI = 3.59–16.87; log rank P < 0.0001; HR 24.4, 95% CI = 8.67–68.77). The levels of total CTC number and M-CTC number had higher effectiveness than alpha fetal protein (AFP) in HCC longitudinal supervision (77.78% vs 88.89% vs 22.22%). CONCLUSION: Preoperative and postoperative CTCs with higher effectiveness than AFP in prognosis prediction and recurrence supervision, indicating that CTCs could work as the biomarker for HCC clinical management. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00432-022-04526-9.