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Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird sp...

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Autores principales: Howard, Christine, Marjakangas, Emma-Liina, Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra, Milanesi, Pietro, Abuladze, Aleksandre, Aghababyan, Karen, Ajder, Vitalie, Arkumarev, Volen, Balmer, Dawn E., Bauer, Hans-Günther, Beale, Colin M., Bino, Taulant, Boyla, Kerem Ali, Burfield, Ian J., Burke, Brian, Caffrey, Brian, Chodkiewicz, Tomasz, Del Moral, Juan Carlos, Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic, Fernández, Néstor, Fornasari, Lorenzo, Gerlach, Bettina, Godinho, Carlos, Herrando, Sergi, Ieronymidou, Christina, Johnston, Alison, Jovicevic, Mihailo, Kalyakin, Mikhail, Keller, Verena, Knaus, Peter, Kotrošan, Dražen, Kuzmenko, Tatiana, Leitão, Domingos, Lindström, Åke, Maxhuni, Qenan, Mihelič, Tomaž, Mikuska, Tibor, Molina, Blas, Nagy, Károly, Noble, David, Øien, Ingar Jostein, Paquet, Jean-Yves, Pladevall, Clara, Portolou, Danae, Radišić, Dimitrije, Rajkov, Saša, Rajković, Draženko Z., Raudonikis, Liutauras, Sattler, Thomas, Saveljić, Darko, Shimmings, Paul, Sjenicic, Jovica, Šťastný, Karel, Stoychev, Stoycho, Strus, Iurii, Sudfeldt, Christoph, Sultanov, Elchin, Szép, Tibor, Teufelbauer, Norbert, Uzunova, Danka, van Turnhout, Chris A. M., Velevski, Metodija, Vikstrøm, Thomas, Vintchevski, Alexandre, Voltzit, Olga, Voříšek, Petr, Wilk, Tomasz, Zurell, Damaris, Brotons, Lluís, Lehikoinen, Aleksi, Willis, Stephen G.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10359363/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37474503
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
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author Howard, Christine
Marjakangas, Emma-Liina
Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra
Milanesi, Pietro
Abuladze, Aleksandre
Aghababyan, Karen
Ajder, Vitalie
Arkumarev, Volen
Balmer, Dawn E.
Bauer, Hans-Günther
Beale, Colin M.
Bino, Taulant
Boyla, Kerem Ali
Burfield, Ian J.
Burke, Brian
Caffrey, Brian
Chodkiewicz, Tomasz
Del Moral, Juan Carlos
Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic
Fernández, Néstor
Fornasari, Lorenzo
Gerlach, Bettina
Godinho, Carlos
Herrando, Sergi
Ieronymidou, Christina
Johnston, Alison
Jovicevic, Mihailo
Kalyakin, Mikhail
Keller, Verena
Knaus, Peter
Kotrošan, Dražen
Kuzmenko, Tatiana
Leitão, Domingos
Lindström, Åke
Maxhuni, Qenan
Mihelič, Tomaž
Mikuska, Tibor
Molina, Blas
Nagy, Károly
Noble, David
Øien, Ingar Jostein
Paquet, Jean-Yves
Pladevall, Clara
Portolou, Danae
Radišić, Dimitrije
Rajkov, Saša
Rajković, Draženko Z.
Raudonikis, Liutauras
Sattler, Thomas
Saveljić, Darko
Shimmings, Paul
Sjenicic, Jovica
Šťastný, Karel
Stoychev, Stoycho
Strus, Iurii
Sudfeldt, Christoph
Sultanov, Elchin
Szép, Tibor
Teufelbauer, Norbert
Uzunova, Danka
van Turnhout, Chris A. M.
Velevski, Metodija
Vikstrøm, Thomas
Vintchevski, Alexandre
Voltzit, Olga
Voříšek, Petr
Wilk, Tomasz
Zurell, Damaris
Brotons, Lluís
Lehikoinen, Aleksi
Willis, Stephen G.
author_facet Howard, Christine
Marjakangas, Emma-Liina
Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra
Milanesi, Pietro
Abuladze, Aleksandre
Aghababyan, Karen
Ajder, Vitalie
Arkumarev, Volen
Balmer, Dawn E.
Bauer, Hans-Günther
Beale, Colin M.
Bino, Taulant
Boyla, Kerem Ali
Burfield, Ian J.
Burke, Brian
Caffrey, Brian
Chodkiewicz, Tomasz
Del Moral, Juan Carlos
Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic
Fernández, Néstor
Fornasari, Lorenzo
Gerlach, Bettina
Godinho, Carlos
Herrando, Sergi
Ieronymidou, Christina
Johnston, Alison
Jovicevic, Mihailo
Kalyakin, Mikhail
Keller, Verena
Knaus, Peter
Kotrošan, Dražen
Kuzmenko, Tatiana
Leitão, Domingos
Lindström, Åke
Maxhuni, Qenan
Mihelič, Tomaž
Mikuska, Tibor
Molina, Blas
Nagy, Károly
Noble, David
Øien, Ingar Jostein
Paquet, Jean-Yves
Pladevall, Clara
Portolou, Danae
Radišić, Dimitrije
Rajkov, Saša
Rajković, Draženko Z.
Raudonikis, Liutauras
Sattler, Thomas
Saveljić, Darko
Shimmings, Paul
Sjenicic, Jovica
Šťastný, Karel
Stoychev, Stoycho
Strus, Iurii
Sudfeldt, Christoph
Sultanov, Elchin
Szép, Tibor
Teufelbauer, Norbert
Uzunova, Danka
van Turnhout, Chris A. M.
Velevski, Metodija
Vikstrøm, Thomas
Vintchevski, Alexandre
Voltzit, Olga
Voříšek, Petr
Wilk, Tomasz
Zurell, Damaris
Brotons, Lluís
Lehikoinen, Aleksi
Willis, Stephen G.
author_sort Howard, Christine
collection PubMed
description Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.
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spelling pubmed-103593632023-07-22 Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability Howard, Christine Marjakangas, Emma-Liina Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra Milanesi, Pietro Abuladze, Aleksandre Aghababyan, Karen Ajder, Vitalie Arkumarev, Volen Balmer, Dawn E. Bauer, Hans-Günther Beale, Colin M. Bino, Taulant Boyla, Kerem Ali Burfield, Ian J. Burke, Brian Caffrey, Brian Chodkiewicz, Tomasz Del Moral, Juan Carlos Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic Fernández, Néstor Fornasari, Lorenzo Gerlach, Bettina Godinho, Carlos Herrando, Sergi Ieronymidou, Christina Johnston, Alison Jovicevic, Mihailo Kalyakin, Mikhail Keller, Verena Knaus, Peter Kotrošan, Dražen Kuzmenko, Tatiana Leitão, Domingos Lindström, Åke Maxhuni, Qenan Mihelič, Tomaž Mikuska, Tibor Molina, Blas Nagy, Károly Noble, David Øien, Ingar Jostein Paquet, Jean-Yves Pladevall, Clara Portolou, Danae Radišić, Dimitrije Rajkov, Saša Rajković, Draženko Z. Raudonikis, Liutauras Sattler, Thomas Saveljić, Darko Shimmings, Paul Sjenicic, Jovica Šťastný, Karel Stoychev, Stoycho Strus, Iurii Sudfeldt, Christoph Sultanov, Elchin Szép, Tibor Teufelbauer, Norbert Uzunova, Danka van Turnhout, Chris A. M. Velevski, Metodija Vikstrøm, Thomas Vintchevski, Alexandre Voltzit, Olga Voříšek, Petr Wilk, Tomasz Zurell, Damaris Brotons, Lluís Lehikoinen, Aleksi Willis, Stephen G. Nat Commun Article Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-07-20 /pmc/articles/PMC10359363/ /pubmed/37474503 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Howard, Christine
Marjakangas, Emma-Liina
Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra
Milanesi, Pietro
Abuladze, Aleksandre
Aghababyan, Karen
Ajder, Vitalie
Arkumarev, Volen
Balmer, Dawn E.
Bauer, Hans-Günther
Beale, Colin M.
Bino, Taulant
Boyla, Kerem Ali
Burfield, Ian J.
Burke, Brian
Caffrey, Brian
Chodkiewicz, Tomasz
Del Moral, Juan Carlos
Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic
Fernández, Néstor
Fornasari, Lorenzo
Gerlach, Bettina
Godinho, Carlos
Herrando, Sergi
Ieronymidou, Christina
Johnston, Alison
Jovicevic, Mihailo
Kalyakin, Mikhail
Keller, Verena
Knaus, Peter
Kotrošan, Dražen
Kuzmenko, Tatiana
Leitão, Domingos
Lindström, Åke
Maxhuni, Qenan
Mihelič, Tomaž
Mikuska, Tibor
Molina, Blas
Nagy, Károly
Noble, David
Øien, Ingar Jostein
Paquet, Jean-Yves
Pladevall, Clara
Portolou, Danae
Radišić, Dimitrije
Rajkov, Saša
Rajković, Draženko Z.
Raudonikis, Liutauras
Sattler, Thomas
Saveljić, Darko
Shimmings, Paul
Sjenicic, Jovica
Šťastný, Karel
Stoychev, Stoycho
Strus, Iurii
Sudfeldt, Christoph
Sultanov, Elchin
Szép, Tibor
Teufelbauer, Norbert
Uzunova, Danka
van Turnhout, Chris A. M.
Velevski, Metodija
Vikstrøm, Thomas
Vintchevski, Alexandre
Voltzit, Olga
Voříšek, Petr
Wilk, Tomasz
Zurell, Damaris
Brotons, Lluís
Lehikoinen, Aleksi
Willis, Stephen G.
Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
title Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
title_full Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
title_fullStr Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
title_full_unstemmed Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
title_short Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
title_sort local colonisations and extinctions of european birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10359363/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37474503
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
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