Cargando…

Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe

European windstorms cause socioeconomic losses due to wind damage. Projections of future losses from such storms are subject to uncertainties from the frequency and tracks of the storms, their intensities and definitions thereof, and socio-economic scenarios. We use two storm severity indices applie...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Little, Alexander S., Priestley, Matthew D. K., Catto, Jennifer L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10363171/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37481655
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40102-6
_version_ 1785076586157965312
author Little, Alexander S.
Priestley, Matthew D. K.
Catto, Jennifer L.
author_facet Little, Alexander S.
Priestley, Matthew D. K.
Catto, Jennifer L.
author_sort Little, Alexander S.
collection PubMed
description European windstorms cause socioeconomic losses due to wind damage. Projections of future losses from such storms are subject to uncertainties from the frequency and tracks of the storms, their intensities and definitions thereof, and socio-economic scenarios. We use two storm severity indices applied to objectively identified extratropical cyclone footprints from a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models under different future socio-economic scenarios. Here we show storm frequency increases across northern and central Europe, where the meteorological storm severity index more than doubles. The population-weighted storm severity index more than triples, due to projected population increases. Adapting to the increasing wind speeds using future damage thresholds, the population weighted storm severity index increases are only partially offset, despite a reduction in the meteorological storm severity through adaptation. Through following lower emissions scenarios, the future increase in risk is reduced, with the population-weighted storm severity index increase more than halved.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-10363171
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2023
publisher Nature Publishing Group UK
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-103631712023-07-24 Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe Little, Alexander S. Priestley, Matthew D. K. Catto, Jennifer L. Nat Commun Article European windstorms cause socioeconomic losses due to wind damage. Projections of future losses from such storms are subject to uncertainties from the frequency and tracks of the storms, their intensities and definitions thereof, and socio-economic scenarios. We use two storm severity indices applied to objectively identified extratropical cyclone footprints from a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models under different future socio-economic scenarios. Here we show storm frequency increases across northern and central Europe, where the meteorological storm severity index more than doubles. The population-weighted storm severity index more than triples, due to projected population increases. Adapting to the increasing wind speeds using future damage thresholds, the population weighted storm severity index increases are only partially offset, despite a reduction in the meteorological storm severity through adaptation. Through following lower emissions scenarios, the future increase in risk is reduced, with the population-weighted storm severity index increase more than halved. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-07-22 /pmc/articles/PMC10363171/ /pubmed/37481655 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40102-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Little, Alexander S.
Priestley, Matthew D. K.
Catto, Jennifer L.
Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
title Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
title_full Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
title_fullStr Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
title_full_unstemmed Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
title_short Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
title_sort future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern europe
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10363171/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37481655
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40102-6
work_keys_str_mv AT littlealexanders futureincreasedriskfromextratropicalwindstormsinnortherneurope
AT priestleymatthewdk futureincreasedriskfromextratropicalwindstormsinnortherneurope
AT cattojenniferl futureincreasedriskfromextratropicalwindstormsinnortherneurope