Prognostic Value of Pace Variability, a Novel 6MWT-Derived Feature, in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

PURPOSE: The 6-minute walk test (6MWT) is often used to evaluate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients’ functional capacity, with 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) and related measures being linked to mortality and hospitalizations. This study investigates the prognostic value of pace variability, a significant indicator in sports medicine, during the 6MWT for COPD patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively screened consecutive COPD patients who had been prospectively enrolled in a pay-for-performance program from January 2019 to May 2020 to determine their eligibility. Patient characteristics, including demographics, exacerbation history, and 6MWT data, were analyzed to investigate their potential associations with prognosis. The primary outcome was a composite of adverse events, including overall mortality or hospitalizations due to exacerbations during a 1-year follow-up period. To analyze the 6MWT data, we divided it into three 2-minute epochs and calculated the average walk speed for each epoch. We defined pace variability as the difference between the maximum and minimum average speed in a single 2-minute epoch, divided by the average speed for the entire 6-minute walk test. RESULTS: A total of 163 patients with COPD were included in the study, and 19 of them (12%) experienced the composite adverse outcome. Multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed that two predictors were independently associated with the composite outcome: % predicted 6MWD <72 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 7.080; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.481–33.847) and pace variability ≥0.39 (aOR 9.444; 95% CI 2.689–33.170). Patients with either of these adverse prognostic features had significantly worse composite outcome-free survival, with both log-rank P values less than 0.005. Notably, COPD patients with both adverse features experienced an especially poor outcome after 1 year. CONCLUSION: Patients with COPD who exhibited greater pace variability during the 6MWT had a significantly higher risk of overall mortality and COPD-related hospitalizations, indicating a worse prognosis.