Identification and validation of a nomogram predicting cancer-specific survival for elderly patients with adult fibrosarcoma: a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Due to the low incidence of adult fibrosarcoma (AFS), it is difficult for clinicians to assess cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly patients based on this study. The study aimed to develop nomograms capable of accurately predicting 3-, 5-, and 8-year CSS in patients over 40 years of age with AFS. METHODS: Data were collected from The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. 586 patients were included in this study. Univariate as well as multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to identify independent risk factors. A nomogram was constructed and validated to predict the 3-, 5-, and 8-year CSS of patients. RESULTS: Five variables including age, sex, stage, grade, and chemotherapy status were considered independent risk factors and were used to construct the nomogram. The nomogram was well validated. The C-indexes of the training cohort and the validation cohort are 0.766 and 0.780, respectively. In addition, the area under the curves for 3-, 5- and 8-year CSS are 0.824, 0.846 and 0.840 in the training cohort, 0.835, 0.806 and 0.829 in the validation cohort. Calibration curves were also plotted to show that predicted endings have a well fit for the true endings. Finally, decision curve analysis demonstrates that the nomogram can bring a high benefit to patients. CONCLUSION: We successfully constructed a highly accurate nomogram to predict the CSS of AFS patients at 3-, 5-, and 8 years. The nomogram can greatly help clinicians and patients with AFS.