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Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022
BACKGROUND: Since May 2022, an mpox outbreak affecting primarily men who have sex with men (MSM) has occurred in numerous non-endemic countries worldwide. As MSM frequently reported multiple sexual encounters in this outbreak, reliably determining the time of infection is difficult; consequently, es...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10370040/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37410383 http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.27.2200806 |
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author | McFarland, Sarah E Marcus, Ulrich Hemmers, Lukas Miura, Fuminari Iñigo Martínez, Jesús Martínez, Fernando Martín Montalbán, Elisa Gil Chazelle, Emilie Mailles, Alexandra Silue, Yassoungo Hammami, Naïma Lecompte, Amaryl Ledent, Nicolas Vanden Berghe, Wim Liesenborghs, Laurens Van den Bossche, Dorien Cleary, Paul R Wallinga, Jacco Robinson, Eve P Johansen, Tone Bjordal Bormane, Antra Melillo, Tanya Seidl, Cornelia Coyer, Liza Boberg, Ronja Jurke, Annette Werber, Dirk Bartel, Alexander |
author_facet | McFarland, Sarah E Marcus, Ulrich Hemmers, Lukas Miura, Fuminari Iñigo Martínez, Jesús Martínez, Fernando Martín Montalbán, Elisa Gil Chazelle, Emilie Mailles, Alexandra Silue, Yassoungo Hammami, Naïma Lecompte, Amaryl Ledent, Nicolas Vanden Berghe, Wim Liesenborghs, Laurens Van den Bossche, Dorien Cleary, Paul R Wallinga, Jacco Robinson, Eve P Johansen, Tone Bjordal Bormane, Antra Melillo, Tanya Seidl, Cornelia Coyer, Liza Boberg, Ronja Jurke, Annette Werber, Dirk Bartel, Alexander |
author_sort | McFarland, Sarah E |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Since May 2022, an mpox outbreak affecting primarily men who have sex with men (MSM) has occurred in numerous non-endemic countries worldwide. As MSM frequently reported multiple sexual encounters in this outbreak, reliably determining the time of infection is difficult; consequently, estimation of the incubation period is challenging. AIM: We aimed to provide valid and precise estimates of the incubation period distribution of mpox by using cases associated with early outbreak settings where infection likely occurred. METHODS: Colleagues in European countries were invited to provide information on exposure intervals and date of symptom onset for mpox cases who attended a fetish festival in Antwerp, Belgium, a gay pride festival in Gran Canaria, Spain or a particular club in Berlin, Germany, where early mpox outbreaks occurred. Cases of these outbreaks were pooled; doubly censored models using the log-normal, Weibull and Gamma distributions were fitted to estimate the incubation period distribution. RESULTS: We included data on 122 laboratory-confirmed cases from 10 European countries. Depending on the distribution used, the median incubation period ranged between 8 and 9 days, with 5th and 95th percentiles ranging from 2 to 3 and from 20 to 23 days, respectively. The shortest interval that included 50% of incubation periods spanned 8 days (4–11 days). CONCLUSION: Current public health management of close contacts should consider that in approximately 5% of cases, the incubation period exceeds the commonly used monitoring period of 21 days. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10370040 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-103700402023-07-27 Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022 McFarland, Sarah E Marcus, Ulrich Hemmers, Lukas Miura, Fuminari Iñigo Martínez, Jesús Martínez, Fernando Martín Montalbán, Elisa Gil Chazelle, Emilie Mailles, Alexandra Silue, Yassoungo Hammami, Naïma Lecompte, Amaryl Ledent, Nicolas Vanden Berghe, Wim Liesenborghs, Laurens Van den Bossche, Dorien Cleary, Paul R Wallinga, Jacco Robinson, Eve P Johansen, Tone Bjordal Bormane, Antra Melillo, Tanya Seidl, Cornelia Coyer, Liza Boberg, Ronja Jurke, Annette Werber, Dirk Bartel, Alexander Euro Surveill Surveillance BACKGROUND: Since May 2022, an mpox outbreak affecting primarily men who have sex with men (MSM) has occurred in numerous non-endemic countries worldwide. As MSM frequently reported multiple sexual encounters in this outbreak, reliably determining the time of infection is difficult; consequently, estimation of the incubation period is challenging. AIM: We aimed to provide valid and precise estimates of the incubation period distribution of mpox by using cases associated with early outbreak settings where infection likely occurred. METHODS: Colleagues in European countries were invited to provide information on exposure intervals and date of symptom onset for mpox cases who attended a fetish festival in Antwerp, Belgium, a gay pride festival in Gran Canaria, Spain or a particular club in Berlin, Germany, where early mpox outbreaks occurred. Cases of these outbreaks were pooled; doubly censored models using the log-normal, Weibull and Gamma distributions were fitted to estimate the incubation period distribution. RESULTS: We included data on 122 laboratory-confirmed cases from 10 European countries. Depending on the distribution used, the median incubation period ranged between 8 and 9 days, with 5th and 95th percentiles ranging from 2 to 3 and from 20 to 23 days, respectively. The shortest interval that included 50% of incubation periods spanned 8 days (4–11 days). CONCLUSION: Current public health management of close contacts should consider that in approximately 5% of cases, the incubation period exceeds the commonly used monitoring period of 21 days. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2023-07-06 /pmc/articles/PMC10370040/ /pubmed/37410383 http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.27.2200806 Text en This article is copyright of the authors or their affiliated institutions, 2023. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate credit to the source, provide a link to the licence, and indicate if changes were made. |
spellingShingle | Surveillance McFarland, Sarah E Marcus, Ulrich Hemmers, Lukas Miura, Fuminari Iñigo Martínez, Jesús Martínez, Fernando Martín Montalbán, Elisa Gil Chazelle, Emilie Mailles, Alexandra Silue, Yassoungo Hammami, Naïma Lecompte, Amaryl Ledent, Nicolas Vanden Berghe, Wim Liesenborghs, Laurens Van den Bossche, Dorien Cleary, Paul R Wallinga, Jacco Robinson, Eve P Johansen, Tone Bjordal Bormane, Antra Melillo, Tanya Seidl, Cornelia Coyer, Liza Boberg, Ronja Jurke, Annette Werber, Dirk Bartel, Alexander Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022 |
title | Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022 |
title_full | Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022 |
title_fullStr | Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022 |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022 |
title_short | Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022 |
title_sort | estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international european festivals and outbreaks in a club in berlin, may to june 2022 |
topic | Surveillance |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10370040/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37410383 http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.27.2200806 |
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