Predicting prenatal depression and assessing model bias using machine learning models

Perinatal depression (PND) is one of the most common medical complications during pregnancy and postpartum period, affecting 10–20% of pregnant individuals. Black and Latina women have higher rates of PND, yet they are less likely to be diagnosed and receive treatment. Machine learning (ML) models based on Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) have been effective in predicting postpartum depression in middle-class White women but have rarely included sufficient proportions of racial and ethnic minorities, which contributed to biases in ML models for minority women. Our goal is to determine whether ML models could serve to predict depression in early pregnancy in racial/ethnic minority women by leveraging EMR data. We extracted EMRs from a hospital in a large urban city that mostly served low-income Black and Hispanic women (N=5,875) in the U.S. Depressive symptom severity was assessed from a self-reported questionnaire, PHQ-9. We investigated multiple ML classifiers, used Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) for model interpretation, and determined model prediction bias with two metrics, Disparate Impact, and Equal Opportunity Difference. While ML model (Elastic Net) performance was low (ROCAUC=0.67), we identified well-known factors associated with PND, such as unplanned pregnancy and being single, as well as underexplored factors, such as self-report pain levels, lower levels of prenatal vitamin supplement intake, asthma, carrying a male fetus, and lower platelet levels blood. Our findings showed that despite being based on a sample mostly composed of 75% low-income minority women (54% Black and 27% Latina), the model performance was lower for these communities. In conclusion, ML models based on EMRs could moderately predict depression in early pregnancy, but their performance is biased against low-income minority women.