Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We...

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Autores principales: van Westen, René M., Dijkstra, Henk A., Bloemendaal, Nadia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2023
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10371960/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37521825
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3
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author van Westen, René M.
Dijkstra, Henk A.
Bloemendaal, Nadia
author_facet van Westen, René M.
Dijkstra, Henk A.
Bloemendaal, Nadia
author_sort van Westen, René M.
collection PubMed
description Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases ([Formula: see text]) in the North Atlantic but increases ([Formula: see text] ) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3.
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spelling pubmed-103719602023-07-28 Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model van Westen, René M. Dijkstra, Henk A. Bloemendaal, Nadia Clim Dyn Article Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases ([Formula: see text]) in the North Atlantic but increases ([Formula: see text] ) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2023-01-22 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10371960/ /pubmed/37521825 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
van Westen, René M.
Dijkstra, Henk A.
Bloemendaal, Nadia
Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model
title Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model
title_full Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model
title_fullStr Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model
title_full_unstemmed Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model
title_short Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model
title_sort mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10371960/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37521825
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3
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