Range Dynamics of Striped Field Mouse (Apodemus agrarius) in Northern Eurasia under Global Climate Change Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Global climate change may expand the regions suitable for alien species beyond their historical range. The striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius) is a widespread species in Northern Eurasia. Its current and future range expansion under climate change may negatively influence public health and the economy. We studied the potential distribution of the striped field mouse and assessed vulnerability of Northern Eurasia to A. agrarius invasion. We created an ensemble of species distribution models to predict suitable niches across current and future climate changes. We found that the range changes depended on both the sensitivity and scenario of climate change models. The main trends included range expansion to the northeast, partial habitat loss in the steppe, and formation of a continuous range from Central Europe to East Asia. The results are important for minimizing new invasions of the striped field mouse and their negative consequences. ABSTRACT: The striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius Pallas, 1771) is a widespread species in Northern Eurasia. It damages crops and carries zoonotic pathogens. Its current and future range expansion under climate change may negatively affect public health and the economy, warranting further research to understand the ecological and invasive characteristics of the species. In our study, we used seven algorithms (GLM, GAM, GBS, FDA, RF, ANN, and MaxEnt) to develop robust ensemble species distribution models (eSDMs) under current (1970–2000) and future climate conditions derived from global circulation models (GCMs) for 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Simulation of climate change included high-, medium-, and low-sensitivity GCMs under four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We analyzed the habitat suitability across GCMs and scenarios by constructing geographical ranges and calculating their centroids. The results showed that the range changes depended on both the sensitivity of GCMs and scenario. The main trends were range expansion to the northeast and partial loss of habitat in the steppe area. The striped field mouse may form a continuous range from Central Europe to East Asia, closing the range gap that has existed for 12 thousand years. We present 49 eSDMs for the current and future distribution of A. agrarius (for 2000–2100) with quantitative metrics (gain, loss, change) of the range dynamics under global climate change. The most important predictor variables determining eSDMs are mean annual temperature, mean diurnal range of temperatures, the highest temperature of the warmest month, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the coldest month. These findings could help limit the population of the striped field mouse and predict distribution of the species under global climate change.