The impacts of low-carbon city pilot policies on natural population growth: empirical evidence from China’s prefecture-level cities

INTRODUCTION: The carbon emissions that cities contribute drive the development of low-carbon cities (LCCs) and low-carbon city pilot (LCCP) policies. However, the lack of comprehensive understanding regarding the impacts of LCCP policies on natural population growth hampers effective policy design and implementation, thus constraining sustainable development at the city level. METHODOLOGY: Extending the existing papers which focus on the relations between low-carbon pilot policies and industry transformation or economic growth, this research applies several experimental methods [e.g., Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Differences (PSM-DID)] to investigate the impacts of low-carbon pilot policies on natural population growth by applying the data from 287 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: This research found that low-carbon pilot policies would positively influence the low-carbon cities’ natural population growth by influencing (a) economic factors, (b) political factors, (c) technological factors, and (d) the living environment. This research establishes a framework for understanding the impact mechanisms of LCCP on natural population growth. This paper investigates how industrial structure optimization, policy design and implementation in different regions, technological innovations, and urban green space theoretically affect natural population growth. This paper also proposed characteristics of LCCP which should be theoretically concerned by the government. From a practical perspective, this research suggests several policy recommendations. Central and local governments are encouraged to prioritize industrial structure optimization and assess populations’ dependence on cultivated land. Providing additional policy support to underdeveloped areas is crucial to promote the balance between economic and environmental development. Furthermore, establishing online public health platforms and urban green spaces is proposed to enhance the population’s health and complement the implementation of LCCP policies. This offers both theoretical and practical insights into the impacts of LCCP policies on natural population growth. Its findings contribute to designing and implementing LCCP policies in China and other developing countries at a similar development stage.