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Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease, endemic to Africa, that causes high mortality when introduced into domestic pig populations. Since the emergence of p72-genotype II African swine fever virus (ASFV) in Georgia in 2007, an ASF epidemic has been spreading across Europe and many countries i...

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Autores principales: Bezymennyi, Maksym, Tarasov, Oleksandr, Kyivska, Ganna V., Mezhenska, Nataliia A., Mandyhra, Svitlana, Kovalenko, Ganna, Sushko, Mykola, Hudz, Nataliia, Skorokhod, Serhii V., Datsenko, Roman, Muzykina, Larysa, Milton, Elaina, Sapachova, Maryna A., Nychyk, Serhii, Halka, Ihor, Frant, Maciej, Huettmann, Falk, Drown, Devin M., Gerilovych, Anton, Mezhenskyi, Andrii A., Bortz, Eric, Lange, Christian E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10384127/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37514961
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11071145
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author Bezymennyi, Maksym
Tarasov, Oleksandr
Kyivska, Ganna V.
Mezhenska, Nataliia A.
Mandyhra, Svitlana
Kovalenko, Ganna
Sushko, Mykola
Hudz, Nataliia
Skorokhod, Serhii V.
Datsenko, Roman
Muzykina, Larysa
Milton, Elaina
Sapachova, Maryna A.
Nychyk, Serhii
Halka, Ihor
Frant, Maciej
Huettmann, Falk
Drown, Devin M.
Gerilovych, Anton
Mezhenskyi, Andrii A.
Bortz, Eric
Lange, Christian E.
author_facet Bezymennyi, Maksym
Tarasov, Oleksandr
Kyivska, Ganna V.
Mezhenska, Nataliia A.
Mandyhra, Svitlana
Kovalenko, Ganna
Sushko, Mykola
Hudz, Nataliia
Skorokhod, Serhii V.
Datsenko, Roman
Muzykina, Larysa
Milton, Elaina
Sapachova, Maryna A.
Nychyk, Serhii
Halka, Ihor
Frant, Maciej
Huettmann, Falk
Drown, Devin M.
Gerilovych, Anton
Mezhenskyi, Andrii A.
Bortz, Eric
Lange, Christian E.
author_sort Bezymennyi, Maksym
collection PubMed
description African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease, endemic to Africa, that causes high mortality when introduced into domestic pig populations. Since the emergence of p72-genotype II African swine fever virus (ASFV) in Georgia in 2007, an ASF epidemic has been spreading across Europe and many countries in Asia. The epidemic first reached Ukraine in 2012. To better understand the dynamics of spread of ASF in Ukraine, we analyzed spatial and temporal outbreak data reported in Ukraine between 2012 and mid-2023. The highest numbers of outbreaks were reported in 2017 (N = 163) and 2018 (N = 145), with overall peak numbers of ASF outbreaks reported in August (domestic pigs) and January (wild boars). While cases were reported from most of Ukraine, we found a directional spread from the eastern and northern borders towards the western and southern regions of Ukraine. Many of the early outbreaks (before 2016) were adjacent to the border, which is again true for more recent outbreaks in wild boar, but not for recent outbreaks in domestic pigs. Outbreaks prior to 2016 also occurred predominantly in areas with a below average domestic pig density. This new analysis suggests that wild boars may have played an important role in the introduction and early spread of ASF in Ukraine. However, in later years, the dynamic suggests human activity as the predominant driver of spread and a separation of ASF epizootics between domestic pigs and in wild boars. The decline in outbreaks since 2019 suggests that the implemented mitigation strategies are effective, even though long-term control or eradication remain challenging and will require continued intensive surveillance of ASF outbreak patterns.
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spelling pubmed-103841272023-07-30 Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023 Bezymennyi, Maksym Tarasov, Oleksandr Kyivska, Ganna V. Mezhenska, Nataliia A. Mandyhra, Svitlana Kovalenko, Ganna Sushko, Mykola Hudz, Nataliia Skorokhod, Serhii V. Datsenko, Roman Muzykina, Larysa Milton, Elaina Sapachova, Maryna A. Nychyk, Serhii Halka, Ihor Frant, Maciej Huettmann, Falk Drown, Devin M. Gerilovych, Anton Mezhenskyi, Andrii A. Bortz, Eric Lange, Christian E. Vaccines (Basel) Article African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease, endemic to Africa, that causes high mortality when introduced into domestic pig populations. Since the emergence of p72-genotype II African swine fever virus (ASFV) in Georgia in 2007, an ASF epidemic has been spreading across Europe and many countries in Asia. The epidemic first reached Ukraine in 2012. To better understand the dynamics of spread of ASF in Ukraine, we analyzed spatial and temporal outbreak data reported in Ukraine between 2012 and mid-2023. The highest numbers of outbreaks were reported in 2017 (N = 163) and 2018 (N = 145), with overall peak numbers of ASF outbreaks reported in August (domestic pigs) and January (wild boars). While cases were reported from most of Ukraine, we found a directional spread from the eastern and northern borders towards the western and southern regions of Ukraine. Many of the early outbreaks (before 2016) were adjacent to the border, which is again true for more recent outbreaks in wild boar, but not for recent outbreaks in domestic pigs. Outbreaks prior to 2016 also occurred predominantly in areas with a below average domestic pig density. This new analysis suggests that wild boars may have played an important role in the introduction and early spread of ASF in Ukraine. However, in later years, the dynamic suggests human activity as the predominant driver of spread and a separation of ASF epizootics between domestic pigs and in wild boars. The decline in outbreaks since 2019 suggests that the implemented mitigation strategies are effective, even though long-term control or eradication remain challenging and will require continued intensive surveillance of ASF outbreak patterns. MDPI 2023-06-25 /pmc/articles/PMC10384127/ /pubmed/37514961 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11071145 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Bezymennyi, Maksym
Tarasov, Oleksandr
Kyivska, Ganna V.
Mezhenska, Nataliia A.
Mandyhra, Svitlana
Kovalenko, Ganna
Sushko, Mykola
Hudz, Nataliia
Skorokhod, Serhii V.
Datsenko, Roman
Muzykina, Larysa
Milton, Elaina
Sapachova, Maryna A.
Nychyk, Serhii
Halka, Ihor
Frant, Maciej
Huettmann, Falk
Drown, Devin M.
Gerilovych, Anton
Mezhenskyi, Andrii A.
Bortz, Eric
Lange, Christian E.
Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023
title Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023
title_full Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023
title_fullStr Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023
title_full_unstemmed Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023
title_short Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012–2023
title_sort epidemiological characterization of african swine fever dynamics in ukraine, 2012–2023
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10384127/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37514961
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11071145
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