Expenditure projections for community home-based care services for older adults with functional decline in China

INTRODUCTION: Difficulty in identifying the functional status of older adults creates an imbalance between the supply and demand for community home-based care. Using a multi-level functional classification system to guide care cost measurement may optimize care resources and meet diverse eldercare demands. METHODS: The Markov model was used to project the older population size in different functional decline (FD) statuses. The project cost and the man-hour costing method were combined to forecast the cost of community home-based care for older adults with FD. RESULTS: The projected cost of eldercare increased from 1668.623 billion yuan in 2020 to 2836.754 billion yuan in 2035. By 2035, the total cost for community-based home care for those in pathological development of FD statuses such as “viability disorder,” “acute disease,” “somatic functional disorder,” and “sub-disorder” was projected to be 1094.591 billion, 433.855 billion, 1256.236 billion, and 52.072 billion yuan, respectively, which is 1.24, 1.58, 1.78, and 0.49 times higher than the results by the man-hour costing method. Family caregiving costs are about three times those of professional caregivers. CONCLUSION: The escalating cost of providing graded care for older adults, particularly by family caregivers, presenting a significant evidence for the need to optimize resource allocation and develop a robust human resources plan for community home-based care. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-023-01954-y.