Machine learning for prediction of asthma exacerbations among asthmatic patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Asthma exacerbations reduce the patient’s quality of life and are also responsible for significant disease burdens and economic costs. Machine learning (ML)-based prediction models have been increasingly developed to predict asthma exacerbations in recent years. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to identify the prediction performance of ML-based prediction models for asthma exacerbations and address the uncertainty of whether modern ML methods could become an alternative option to predict asthma exacerbations. METHODS: PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched for studies published up to December 15, 2022. Studies that applied ML methods to develop prediction models for asthma exacerbations among asthmatic patients older than five years and were published in English were eligible. The prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) was utilized to estimate the risk of bias and the applicability of included studies. Stata software (version 15.0) was used for the random effects meta-analysis of performance measures. Subgroup analyses stratified by ML methods, sample size, age groups, and outcome definitions were conducted. RESULTS: Eleven studies, including 23 prediction models, were identified. Most of the studies were published in recent three years. Logistic regression, boosting, and random forest were the most used ML methods. The most common important predictors were systemic steroid use, short-acting beta2-agonists, emergency department visit, age, and exacerbation history. The overall pooled area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of 11 studies (23 prediction models) was 0.80 (95% CI 0.77–0.83). Subgroup analysis based on different ML models showed that boosting method achieved the best performance, with an overall pooled AUROC of 0.84 (95% CI 0.81–0.87). CONCLUSION: This study identified that ML was the potential tool to achieve great performance in predicting asthma exacerbations. However, the methodology within these models was heterogeneous. Future studies should focus on improving the generalization ability and practicability, thus driving the application of these models in clinical practice. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-023-02570-w.