Recent evolution of flowering time across multiple European plant species correlates with changes in aridity

Ongoing global warming and increasing drought frequencies impact plant populations and potentially drive rapid evolutionary adaptations. Historical comparisons, where plants grown from seeds collected in the past are compared to plants grown from freshly collected seeds from populations of the same sites, are a powerful method to investigate recent evolutionary changes across many taxa. We used 21–38 years old seeds of 13 European plant species, stored in seed banks and originating from Mediterranean and temperate regions, together with recently collected seeds from the same sites for a greenhouse experiment to investigate shifts in flowering phenology as a potential result of adaptive evolution to changes in drought intensities over the last decades. We further used single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers to quantify relatedness and levels of genetic variation. We found that, across species, current populations grew faster and advanced their flowering. These shifts were correlated with changes in aridity at the population origins, suggesting that increased drought induced evolution of earlier flowering, whereas decreased drought lead to weak or inverse shifts in flowering phenology. In five out of the 13 species, however, the SNP markers detected strong differences in genetic variation and relatedness between the past and current populations collected, indicating that other evolutionary processes may have contributed to changes in phenotypes. Our results suggest that changes in aridity may have influenced the evolutionary trajectories of many plant species in different regions of Europe, and that flowering phenology may be one of the key traits that is rapidly evolving. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00442-023-05414-w.