A prediction model for permanent pacemaker implantation after transcatheter aortic valve replacement

BACKGROUND: This study aims to develop a post-procedural risk prediction model for permanent pacemaker implantation (PPMI) in patients treated with transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). METHODS: 336 patients undergoing TAVR at a single institution were included for model derivation. For primary analysis, multivariate logistic regression model was used to evaluate predictors and a risk score system was devised based on the prediction model. For secondary analysis, a Cox proportion hazard model was performed to assess characteristics associated with the time from TAVR to PPMI. The model was validated internally via bootstrap and externally using an independent cohort. RESULTS: 48 (14.3%) patients in the derivation set had PPMI after TAVR. Prior right bundle branch block (RBBB, OR: 10.46; p < 0.001), pre-procedural aortic valve area (AVA, OR: 1.41; p = 0.004) and post- to pre-procedural AVA ratio (OR: 1.72; p = 0.043) were identified as independent predictors for PPMI. AUC was 0.7 and 0.71 in the derivation and external validation set. Prior RBBB (HR: 5.07; p < 0.001), pre-procedural AVA (HR: 1.33; p = 0.001), post-procedural AVA to prosthetic nominal area ratio (HR: 0.02; p = 0.039) and post- to pre-procedural troponin-T difference (HR: 1.72; p = 0.017) are independently associated with time to PPMI. CONCLUSIONS: The post-procedural prediction model achieved high discriminative power and accuracy for PPMI. The risk score system was constructed and validated, providing an accessible tool in clinical setting regarding the Chinese population. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40001-023-01237-w.